Six Nations, Three Big Wins

There can scarcely have been such round of a one-sided matches in the history of the Six Nations. The fierce rivalries, close contests and rich histories seemingly never fail to produce at least one tense or dramatic clash each weekend of this fascinating tournament. And yet this weekend will hardly go down in history as one of chewed nails, worn nerves and well used seat-edges. The brilliance of the competition is that it there is still so much to look at and analyse, and that the final outcome is not really any clearer than this time last week. Let's look game by game and where the results leave its respective combatants.

Paddy Jackson adds insult to injury,
while North resigns himself to defeat

Ireland 26 - 3 Wales: Probably one of the most eagerly anticipated matches of the whole tournament turned into an utterly one-sided domination by the men in green. Ireland performed exceptionally well, controlling the game from Sexton's boot and taking advantage of a hugely disappointing Welsh performance. Few would have expected Wales to play even worse than they did in their win over Italy last week, and fewer still to see such a limited response when they fell behind. Inevitably Ireland will have high hopes going into the remaining 3 fixtures but travelling away to both England and France means that they'll need to maintain their standard of play if they want to be crowned champions. It's not over for Wales, but they too will need a win at Twickenham, as well as a massive swing in points-difference to have any hope of completing that fabled treble.

Another near-flawless performance
from Mike Brown

Scotland 0 - 20 England: A worm-infested pitch and driving rain could have made for the sort of ugly battle that Scotland had a chance of emerging from victorious. As it was, the dismal pitch meant only a few missed kicks and farcical scrums - the rain never came, and nor did the competitive Scottish fight. England's only concern was not putting more points on the board when they had the chance, but unlike in Paris, there was never any danger of it coming back to haunt them. Scotland's stand-out player (at least until inexplicably subbed), Dave Denton, said before the game that this was the match which mattered most. Apparently not many of his team-mates heard him because they failed to show up with any vigour or pace. Hogg couldn't make any impression at all, while Johnny May demonstrated what England had missed last week against France. Hosting another group of Celts in a fortnight will show what England are really made of, while Scotland can look forward to the wooden-spoon-off against Italy, and I imagine putting in a bit of training on the line out.

Fofana's running made the difference

France 30 - 10 Italy: A pretty dire first half was characterised mostly by ill-discipline and missed penalties, rather than anything positive. Then the second half exploded with 3 rapid-fire French tries effectively putting an end to the competitive nature of the match but certainly providing for much more entertaining viewing. The last quarter of the match was Italy camped in the French 22, unable to find the killer breakthrough. Finally it arrived, but only after both sides had a man sent off for a headbutt and France also had one in the bin. The final scoreline reflected how much more clinical the French were, as well as how vulnerable Italy continue to be in spells. As they have done for years, they show potential and promise but not in any sustained manner.

A week off now and then possibly 2 of the biggest clashes of the tournament (sorry Italy v Scotland, I'm not talking about you). Two home wins from two for both Ireland and France, travelling to England and Wales respectively, both with one win from two. Quite feasibly we could have 4 teams with a 2-1 record after 3 matches and then it's anyone's guess how it'll finish up.

Six Nations - All Still to Play For

One round of matches into the Six Nations and in reality not much is clearer about who will be holding the trophy aloft on 15th March. Three home victories leave Wales, France and Ireland heading the table but none of the three victors established themselves as the team to beat. 

It has been much discussed that Wales were pretty unconvincing in their win over Italy. Gifted an early try by a nervous and inexperienced Italian back-line, they failed to capitalise on what was a big chance to hit some significant numbers. Given that last year's tournament came down to points difference, only taking +8 from the Italians could yet come back to haunt the two-time defending champions. Even the usually flawless Leigh Halfpenny threw a dismal pass leading to a straightforward interception and try.

All this being said, let's not forget how Wales started the tournament 12 months ago. Being 30-3 down at home after 40 minutes and going onto lose to a major rival is a whole lot worse than just having to scrape a victory against one of the weaker teams. With Lions centre Jonathan Davies (yes the one controversially selected ahead of Ireland centre Brian O'Driscoll, by Wales coach Warren Gatland) set to return a lot earlier than originally suspected, I wouldn't expect to see Welsh team that emerges in Dublin to be remotely the same, in personnel or performance, as the one which left the field in Cardiff. 

The Irish managed to see off an initially positive and organised Scotland team, who faded significantly as the game went on. Inevitably all games open up as players tire and substitutions loosen teams' structure, but into the latter stages of the second half, Ireland suddenly looked like they could score at any moment. There was a good level of cohesion and replacements for key players like O'Connell, Bowe and O'Brien stood up to be counted. A relatively easy home game is an ideal start to a campaign, allowing time for the squad to settle and find some rhythm. Both Wales and Ireland have had that chance, and as such, things are perfectly set up for their clash this coming Saturday.

As for England, I don't want to talk about it. Yes we performed well in the second half and there's lots to play for yet but frankly you can't afford simple mistakes and if we hadn't dug ourselves a hole in the first half, the door wouldn't have been open for Fickou to storm through at the death. The truth is that the better team always wins - England may have dominated parts and played good rugby, but unless you can take your chances and be clinical and focussed to the last minute, you're always liable to let the game slip. No doubt Scotland will pose an entirely different sort of threat to Lancaster's side, fierce passion and physicality likely to be the defining features. Maitland's absence will be a sorely felt by the Scots, and the returning Jonny May could make a big difference to English fluency through the backs. 

On the assumption that France will comfortably have enough to put away the Italians, the table could again make for fascinating viewing come Sunday evening.

The Rugby Event of the Year is Back Again

This weekend sees the return of the always highly anticipated Six Nations - this year's edition is no different and equally hard to predict. England, Wales and France are almost inseparable in terms of odds (approx 2-1 across most bookies), with Ireland a touch further back. Inevitably there are injury troubles (Dusatoir, Tuilagi, O'Brien, Bowe, Davies etc.) across most of the teams and with no warm up games as such, it's extremely tricky to anticipate where the different squads are at. 

The autumn internationals seem an awful long time ago now, not that the results have any great significance. Wales suffered defeats to Australia and South Africa (as did Scotland), France lost to New Zealand and South Africa, Ireland lost to New Zealand and Australia, while England lost to New Zealand but did manage to beat Australia. This underlines only the superiority of the southern hemisphere sides, rather than any great distinction between those of the north. Ultimately the Six Nations will come down to how relatively even squads perform on each of the weekends. 

If there is any team with a slight edge in terms of player quality, it must be the Welsh side that provided the backbone to the successful Lions squad. However they do come into the tournament with disruption over contracts and the like threatening to affect the squad harmony which has been such a strength for them over recent years. They are aiming for an historic third consecutive title, something never achieved in the entire history of the tournament, going back to the original Home Nations tournament in 1883. England's constant talk of building a new squad and looking ahead needs to materialise into some kind of success rather than just "encouraging results". It remains to be seen whether this can be achieved by bringing in more debutants in place of the likes of Young and Ashton.

Obviously there is a significant variety each year in the fixture list, who has home advantage in the big matches, and who plays 3 home fixtures. Looking at the 3 favourites' fixtures:

Wales home to Italy, France & Scotland; away to England & Ireland
France home to England, Italy & Ireland, away to Wales & Scotland
England home to Ireland & Wales, away to France, Scotland & Italy

Looking at it, France probably have the best fixtures, with 3 home games, 2 of which are against harder opposition. In some ways, although Wales have 3 home games, they "waste" home field advantage against Scotland and Italy who they would probably beat anyway. 

Unquestionably it will be a tighter tournament than the last couple of years, but whether Wales can make history will be a lot clearer in a month or so.

Found this interesting table via the Daily Mail, the wider the line, the more tries each team
scored that year. Bring back 2001/2 I say! (click on it to expand)

A Welsh Grand Slam?

From the seal and porpoise-infested currents of the Pembrokeshire coast, to the peaks of Snowdonia, to the royally inhabited island of Anglesey, to the sprawling metropoleis of Rhosllannerchrugog, Llanfair Caereinion and Ystradffin, south through the Brecon Beacons into the urban centres of Cardiff, Swansea and Newport, a few weeks ago a gentle breeze began, swirling to a quiet whisper, growing louder each weekend, and now at a level audible across the land of the dragon, building to a crescendo and a mighty Welsh roar at the Millenium Stadium on March 17th...

"Y Gamp Lawn" "Y Gamp Lawn" "Y Gamp Lawn" "Y Gamp Lawn"

A straightforward win against the Italians this weekend will leave Warburton, North & Co. all lined up for the Grand Slam (I know my educated readership didn't need a translation of 'Y Gamp Lawn' but who knows who else might stumble on the blog and feel a little lost).
They've come through tough matches in London and Dublin, despite being second best for significant parts of both matches. Neither Ireland nor England took advantage of a Welsh sin-bin, and some poor decisions didn't help either host close out winning positions, but the World Cup semi-finalists showed a determination and skill to fight back and get impressive results in both matches. And winning ugly is part of being champions. Just ask that well known battling midfielder Samir Nasri, who knows about as much about winning ugly as Tim Henman.


After a strong showing in the World Cup, lots of talk discussed Welsh prospects for the Six Nations and if Graham Price is right, this team is on the verge of a great achievement, earned by a mixture of powerful attacking rugby, grit, determination and some lack in clinical finishing of their opponents. 


But let us not forget that Wales were lauded after a World Cup in which they actually lost 3 times (South Africa, France & Australia), and could easily have been heading home after a weak display against Samoa. It was Les Bleus that ended the dream in New Zealand and Les Bleus who could do it again on St Patrick's Day. In all likelihood the French will have beaten England in Paris and so will be vying for the Six Nations crown themselves. And after all, how many times have Wales beaten France in the Six Nations at the Millenium Stadium?


Once. 2008. After home wins over Scotland and Italy, and away wins at Ireland and England (sounding familiar?), they sealed the Grand Slam over the French. They'll need much of the same in a couple of weeks...

Rugby World Cup: A great Six Nations warm-up

A thoroughly unusual and surely unique sensation overcame me at around 9.05am on Sunday morning. 

Having arisen hours earlier to do my standard 10 mile run, 1 hour Bible study and a plethora of unquantifiably charitable good deeds, I turned onto the ITV website and endured the un-skippable adverts, to find I'd just missed the Haka. As I settled in to watch what I expected to be a whole-heartedly enjoyable devastation de l'equipe francaise (Blogspot won't let me do accents, so no criticism please), it came as something of a shock to find myself supporting not those of an All Black nature, but their Gallic opponents.


I've previously noticed that it can be difficult to determine who you want to win a sporting contest until a moment of great tension, such as a hawk-eye call or penalty shootout, when your true desire is revealed. Can you imagine the surprise then to find in those early moments that I genuinely wanted France? I've pondered long and hard how a true patriotic English sports fan with suitable disdain for anything tricolore could possibly be supporting them with more than a passing interest but nothing conclusive comes to mind. A mystery left unsolved.(*obviously if it was against Germany or Australia one is entitled to support France, or indeed any nation on the planet to be honest). 



The truly remarkable effort from the French does set up the 2012 Six Nations to be a potential classic in the history of the tournament. On the eve of the Rugby League Four Nations, it appears as though the annual northern hemisphere round robin could similarly be between four nations. Any of the below must consider themselves strong contenders for the title:



Ireland - defeated Australia during the WC and always difficult to beat, they do have away matches at England and France but 3 home games gives an advantage. They beat England so convincingly to deny them the Grand Slam earlier this year, it'd be crazy to rule them out. A lot might depend on which of the 3 O's are still there (Gara, Connell and Driscoll). William Hill current odds 6/1


Wales - won over many neutrals during the RWC with attacking rugby stemming from a young and energetic team. Considered in most parts as unlucky to go out but a more than mediocre kicking performance and a shaky display in the groups against Samoa suggests they're not quite the finished package yet. Similar to Ireland, they have 3 home games in the 6N, but their away games are in Dublin and London so they'll have to really perform to come out on top. William Hill: 3/1


England - reigning champions who, let's not forget, have a team with vibrant youth and attacking intent buried deep within them. Ashton was joint top try scorer for the RWC, Tuilagi is showing the promise to be a great, and Toby Flood will surely grow into the No 10 jersey which must now be permanently vacated by Wilko, whether he wants to retire or not. Would need to be the first team since Ireland in '09 to win the 6N despite playing 3 away games but with two of them at Scotland and Italy, they'll be in the hunt, regardless of whether Johnno is still in charge. William Hill: 5/2

France - World Cup finalists, beating England and Wales on the way, the mercurial French have been installed as favourites and 3 home matches, including hosting England and Ireland will stand them in good stead. It remains to be seen how Philipe Saint-Andre's management will affect them but if they perform anywhere near the level they produced against New Zealand, it'll be hard to beat them. I can promise my inexplicable spell of amour des cuisses de grenouilles will not be recurring. William Hill favourites at 7/4


After my attempts at making predictions at the quarter final stage, I think I'll steer clear of putting my neck on the line for the time being...