A Chance for Someone New?

With the US Open starting today, there has to be a chance of an outsider taking a debut Grand Slam title for the second time this year. None of the usual suspects are on top form and some of the next generation such as Raonic and Dimitrov are starting to turn potential into ability. Both reached maiden Slam semi finals at Wimbledon and in the near future that may well become victories. Flushing Meadows also has a tendency to be a productive tournament for players who only win one or two in their career. Rafter, Safin, Hewitt, Roddick, Del Potro and Murray all won their first major in New York and none have managed more than 2 in total.

Perhaps it's because it's later in the season and so there can be fitness issues affecting the field. The fatigue element may well have played a part in Federer failing to win since the last of his 5 consecutive titles in 2008, aged 27. He has won each of the other Slams since he last triumphed in New York, but not even reached the final here. The Swiss star's dominance coming to an end has brought about a season of the title changing hands each year. The last 6 years have produced 5 different winners (only Nadal x2) and no-one has defended their title from the previous year. That trend will continue again with this edition with Nadal's withdrawal due to injury.

Nadal's absence means that since his Grand Slam debut aged 17 at 2003 Wimbledon, he has been missed 7 majors, including one in each of the last 3 years. To compare, Federer's debut was at Roland Garros 1999, also aged 17. Since then he has never been absent, missing out only 1999 US Open main draw by losing in qualifying. Tomorrow he will appear in his 60th consecutive Grand Slam. Nadal will not overhaul Federer's record of GS titles, because his absence (and injury) record limits how many he has the chance to win. Rafa has actually only won 1 Slam outside of Roland Garros in the last 4 years and it's pretty unlikely he'll still be at the top of his game when he's 32.

Normally you'd think that Nadal's absence would mean the title is pretty much a guarantee for Murray or Djokovic. As it happens, both have been on a fairly feeble run of form, the Scot losing in the QFs of his last 3 tournaments, the Serb in the last 16 of his last 2. Of course they will rise to the big occasion but in the significantly tougher side of the draw, (Djokovic, Wawrinka, Tsonga, Murray, Raonic, Isner), it will take a mighty turn of form for either of them to be holding the trophy aloft in a fortnight. Federer has shown at Wimbledon that he is still in the hunt for the majors and with a relatively weak route to the final (Karlovic, Fognini, Dimitrov, Ferrer), he may well put the American drought behind him. That being said, his performance the last two years doesn't fill you with confidence if you're a Fed fan (2013 Last 16 loss to Robredo, 2012 QF loss to Berdych). For once, none of the major players look like safe bets.

Hence why it might just be the time for a breakthrough from someone new...

The Famous Four Down Under Again

Almost exactly a year on since my first blog post and I find myself returning after a festive hiatus from whence I began, namely tennis and the Australian Open.

Last year the (inaccurate) predictions centred around Nadal and Federer, and no big surprise they're in the running again. But who was to know that a wheat-free diet could lead to a defeat-free first few months of the season for Djokovic. The 2011 Aussie Open turned out to be the first leg in a somewhat memorable run and led the Serb to becoming the main man of the tennis world and most decidedly the man to beat. 
Back down under 12 months later, it's hard to see past the same old four again...


Novak Djokovic - The world number 1 (by a long way) goes in as firm favourite. He's not had a competitive warm-up tournament but did comfortably dispose of Monfils, Federer and Ferrer in the Abu Dhabi exhibition. His Grand Slam record of 25-1 in 2011 will take some matching but it's difficult to imagine that anyone could stop him before at least the quarters when he could meet someone like Tsonga or Del Potro.

However, Nole's fitness is always a factor to consider, and something often omitted from the story of last season. Taking nothing away from the greatness of the year, he did withdraw from 8 tournaments during the season (*Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Queens, Cincinnati, Davis Cup SF, China Open, Shanghai, Paris) and pulled out here a couple of years ago with heat exhaustion. A different man these days maybe, but still liable to start feeling the pressure if anyone can get a set or two ahead. 


Rafael Nadal - The Spaniard has won a Grand Slam every year since 2005, but he goes into this season perhaps as off-form and fitness as we've seen him since the summer of '09. Although the venue for one of the greatest Federer-Nadal clashes, the Aussie Open hasn't been happy hunting for Rafa generally speaking. Only once other than that epic final has he even made the semis, and last year limped out sadly to countryman Ferrer. Reckless to ever write off the battling leftie but perhaps not surprising he's got the longest odds of all 4. 

Roger Federer - The Swiss comes into the tournament on the back of a pretty significant 21 match winning run, nearly half of what ND achieved last season. One could claim that he cynically protected it by withdrawing prior to a tricky tie against Tsonga but with only 2 mid-tournament withdrawals in his career, I don't think that really fits with his competitive nature. He's going to be a serious threat but everyone wobbles at some point in a GS and Roger seems to do it at somewhat crucial moments these days. He's gone nearly two years since winning a Slam and the next few weeks could be crucial to how the rest of his season, and career, will pan out. 

Andy Murray - The addition of Ivan Lendl to his backroom staff must surely be a big benefit. Read nothing into the win in Brisbane against no stiff opposition, it's on the Rod Laver arena that Murray's fate will be decided. Djokovic is younger than Murray and so the Scot can't hope to just outlast his rival - he needs to step up soon or risk his entire career being in the shadow of the Serb (and Nadal who's only a year older and had 9 GS by Murray's current age). Lendl lost 4 Grand Slam finals before his 1984 triumph at Roland Garros, and then went on to win 8 in total. If his new charge can do anything like that then it's safe to say it'll have been a good appointment by the British No. 1. Another chance for Murray to show he's got the mental and physical strength to last through the toughest test, in the first major of one of the most eagerly anticipated seasons in recent history.


Others to watch out for - Tsonga could be very dangerous indeed. A great second half to 2011 and a good win in Doha. He's going to make a very awkward QF opponent for one of the above. Raonic has just won in Chennai and could well cause a bit of an upset - he's likely to meet a top seed around R3 and if he can keep a lid on the UFE, is very dangerous. Tomic gave Nadal a bit of a scare last year, and although swept away by Murray in Brisbane, is inspired by an Aussie crowd and will certainly fancy his chances of making the latter rounds. And at some point, JMDP will be fully fit again, and the top 4 could become a top 5.

I can't wait...

Who will be the Wimble Don?

I've just found out some rather shocking news. This may come as quite a surprise to much of the British public but apparently there are other tennis tournaments during the year. I had wondered how players' rankings were determined simply by virtue of their performance at Queens and Wimbledon. Now it turns out that they play all over the world, on surfaces other than grass, in every single month of the year. 


I can only presume that from mid-July one year until mid-June the next, these players are training and preparing themselves for the real thing. It seems odd that they should travel such distances, play on clay, carpet and hard... courts (no-one seems to know what hard courts are, just that they're hard), but I suppose with 11 1/2 months to fill they feel the need to have some variety. Quite why they can't just live off the excitement and anticipation about a trip to a London postcode, I have not yet discovered. My journalistic skills are admittedly limited but then who has time to do such work when you can watch 30 second snippets about decades of Wimbledon greatness?


So, as our favourite tennis fortnight of the year approaches again, how are the main contenders looking? 


Rafael Nadal - Title favourite? I know he's only good on clay but he's not actually lost a match at Wimbledon since 2007 and even that was a 5 setter against Federer. He did look extremely weary against Tsonga in the Queens quarters but he always raises his game for the Slams and has just returned to winning ways at the French Open. William Hill have him at 2/1 and that's probably about right - no question he'll be in the hunt come the second week


Novak Djokovic - 2011 has all been about Djokovic. Not since Federer of about 5 years ago have we seen one man dominate so completely. He has remarkably already qualified for the ATP World Tour Finals (as has Rafa now), is almost certain to overtake Rafa for World No. 1 within the next month or two and has only lost once all year. But, he's never been to the final here and for someone who has been frail mentally in the past, we've yet to see the effects of the end of his unbeaten run. William Hill odds: 11/4 - could be vulnerable if he gets a tough opponent in the early rounds but if he gets used to winning again he could go all the way.


Roger Federer - At Roland Garros Federer demonstrated that he's still one of the greatest and more than capable of winning a GS. He has only lost twice at Wimbledon in the last 8 years and will be more confident taking on Nadal than on clay. Half of the times he's participated, he's won. There's no doubt he's a contender and potentially some's marginal favourite. His persistently attacking style means more UFE but also a lot more winners. Expect to see him right there at the end. William Hill odds 5/2


Andy Murray - this year? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's his best chance yet. At least in terms of his own form: coming off the back of his best ever French Open, a devastating performance against Roddick at Queens and another year of maturing and growing. He's had another GS final to learn from and has the impressive record of always matching or improving on his previous performances at Wimbledon: '05 - 3rd round, '06 - 4th round, (didn't play in '07), '08 - Quarters, '09 and '10 - Semi's. Consistent improvement is a good sign. There will of course be a massive pressure, building to a fever pitch should he make the second week (type 'Wimbledon hype' into Google images and see who all the pics are of), which he's not dealt with well in the past but he's got the ability and with the crowd behind him, it could push him one step closer. The problem he has is that he's likely to face 2 of the top 3, and he's yet to show in a GS that he can perform at his absolute best twice in a row. At 6/1 with William Hill, he's definitely worth a stab but I won't be holding my breath...


Of course there are more than 4 gents playing and there are a few others to watch out for:


Juan Martin Del Potro - it's hard to totally rule someone out when he's won a Slam, beating Nadal and Federer on the way, but grass just isn't his glass of Pimms. He's never got beyond R2 at Wimbledon and just lost to the decidedly unimpressive Mannarino at Queens. Dangerous on any given day but very unlikely to sustain a challenge if has to play more than a couple of top tenners. William Hill odds 16/1


Andy Roddick - always has the potential to be dangerous on grass but has no form at all, put up virtually no fight against Murray and seems to be sliding sadly down the rankings. He's only made one GS quarter final since the '09 final loss to Federer and is in real danger of failing to qualify for the Tour Finals for the first time since 2002. Don't waste your money, even at 33/1


James Ward - a fantastic run at Queens and will be full of confidence, especially if he can get a win or two down in Eastbourne. If he can avoid a high seed for a couple of rounds then he could get past some top 100 players but anything more than that I don't see happening. William Hill have him at 250/1 but I'd say 1000/1 might be more accurate!


A few others to keep your eye on, last year's finalist Berdych (25/1), Queens finalist and all-round entertainer Tsonga (33/1), Gael Monfils (125/1), forgotten man Nikolay Davydenko (150/1), the battling Gilles Simon (200/1) and one of Ward's Queens victims at a remarkably generous 300/1, Stan Wawrinka. They could all cause a major seed some trouble on a given day but none really have the capacity to go all the way. 


William Hill also have Milos Raonic installed at 33/1 despite having never played a game at Wimbledon or won any ATP Tournament above 250 Series level. If he wins it or even gets close I'll fly to Canada and apologise to him personally