What Hope for an Ashes Upset?

Let the captain battle commence

So here we are again. The Ashes start again this Wednesday, with England looking for their fourth consecutive home series victory for the first time in 120 years (when they won the first 6 home series). Australia go in as firm favourites, clearly ahead of England in the rankings and having won 4 of 5 series since they last visited England (we've won 1 of 5 in the same time). Perhaps one of the most telling indicators is Australia's convincing 2-0 victory in the West Indies, so soon after England battled to a 1-1 draw against the same mediocre opponents. 

How different from two years ago, when England almost underachieved in winning the series 3-0. This time around it's the hosts who enter with an inexperienced and potentially fragile line up, couple with decent but not spectacular bowling attack. The concern at having no stand-out spinner the main point, but we've also had trouble restricting heavy scoring, maintaining discipline against tailenders and finishing off collapsing opponents. This was such a feature of the 2013 series, with Haddin / Agar standing out in particular. 

Perhaps a smaller trophy
in a couple of months?

Both sides are now without their best bowlers from 2013 - both Swann and Harris retiring and each team needing to find 25 wickets from elsewhere. Whether Moeen and/or Rashid can step into that breach remains to be seen and I must say I'm not convinced either is the full package. In contrast, Australia have a good range of pace bowlers vying for a place, with Josh Hazelwood and the left-armed Mitchells likely starting ahead of Peter Siddle. The fact that Nathan Lyon is a solid rather than world-class spinner may not matter too much if England don't survive until the 5th day. Their bowling averages against West Indies don't make fun reading for an English battling line up who had more than one shaky moment against the Aussies' neighbours.

There are signs that things might not be all baggy green, with England experiencing a new lease of life and optimism after some of the performances against New Zealand. If players like Broad, Anderson, Bell and of course, Cook, can find anywhere near top form to provide the backbone to exciting talent of Root, Buttler and Stokes, it could yet prove to be a closer series than anticipated. 

But why can't we have 10 reviews
an innings?

One thing which doesn't seem too likely at the moment but that we could seriously do with is a bit of weather like two years ago. Things we can do without this time - DRS controversy, England failing to reach 400, England batting at about 2.5 runs per over for the entire series, Mitchell Johnson actually bowling well and straight. Oh and Australia winning, I could definitely live without that.

Are England Over-Cooked?

The last five years or so of English cricket seem to have installed incredibly high expectations of our national team. We thrashed the Aussies, won in India, climbed to the top of the test rankings and became genuinely top quality. Then the signs began to appear to suggest that the foundations were a little shaky and suddenly it all collapsed spectacularly one winter down under. 

The changing of the guard

The true strength and depth of our squad has now been revealed and we're facing a period of rebuilding and struggle. In some ways we've paid the penalty of having such a successful and stable squad for years. The team of Strauss, Cook, Trott, Pietersen, Bell, Prior, Bresnan, Swann, Broad, Finn, Anderson pretty much picked itself and didn't really require the blooding of young talent, particularly in the batting. Suddenly we're finding ourselves needing Robson, Ballance, Root, Moeen and now Buttler all at once. With Bell and Cook in such abysmal form, is it any wonder we've struggled against a relatively mediocre India team?

The fact that we played utterly dismally yet got within 100 runs of winning suggests that perhaps we're not too far from competitive but is that really what we're aiming for? After such an era of success a lull was inevitable but is no harder to accept. 

So what of the 11 men we have now? It's seemingly the end for Prior, and although Buttler is not yet up to test standard, there is no real alternative. There is little point in bringing back Foster or Reed - a lot of people seem to think that decent county form will translate to test match form but these are players who have had a go at test level and were found wanting. How many times did Hick, Crawley and Ramprakash have chances for England? 

And what of our under-fire and under-performing captain?

No question, Cook needs a break and to find his form again but changing the captain mid-series is not the answer. Criticised for being too dull & boring with his captaincy but not praised for inventive fields in the 1st test or bowling Moeen to Jadeja when we all wanted Anderson. He is stubborn and gritty and on a dismal run of form but he is still outstandingly talented. Despite not scoring one for over a year, he still has two more centuries than any other Englishman in history. 

Four years ago Cook was having similar struggles (although not as captain of course). Look at his averages in the home series before he came good so spectacularly in Brisbane:

2009 vs Australia - 5 matches, series average 24.66
2010 vs Bangladesh - 2 matches, series average 19.66
2010 vs Pakistan - 4 matches, series average 23.85 (9.4 in the first 5 innings)

Hard to imagine scenes like these
again any time soon

If it hadn't been for the gritty and extremely lucky century then Cook would probably have been dropped and England's greatest Ashes success for years may never have come about. Take a read of this article and it's hard to believe it's not written about his current situation. 

Much like with replacing Prior, there is no viable alternative to Cook, as an opener and certainly as captain. If he cannot turn things around by the end of the series then I've no doubt he will go, but for now he needs to remain grittily determined and work hard to turn things around, ideally with at least some support from the ECB, the media and the public.

Ashes Preview, stat-attack and pun-athon

After the shortest wait in Ashes history, this week sees the return to the England-Australia cricketing battlefield. After England's successful summer, the record stands at 31 series victories each (5 drawn), only adding to the significance of already something of a meaningful set of matches. With England marginal favourites to repeat their triumph of 2010-11, all of the talk, predictions and injury-waiting will soon be at an end. Few would argue that the 3-0 victory in the summer was perhaps not as convincing as the scoreline would suggest, and it'll take a marked improvement from Cook's men to repeat the trick down under. That being said, you could say there is a lot more to come from the likes of Cook, Trott and Pietersen - leaving the Aussies quaking at the prospect of absurd run-scoring like the last time in Oz. 

It is interesting to compare the two squads in relation to the last time we were here, namely November 2010. Believe it or not, I like a stat. Especially when I have a hunch then do the research and the genuine stats reflect what I wanted to say (I don't like having to Cook them up)

Looking at the top 5 ranked batsmen from each team now and from the 18th November 2010 tells an interesting story:

England top 5 batsmen
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Trott	16	Bell	10
Pietersen	23	Cook	11
Strauss	25	Pietersen	13
Bell	26	Trott	15
Cook	29	Prior	17
Total:	119	Total:	66
Australia top 5 batsmen
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Clarke	14	Clarke	5
Katich	15	Watson	32
Ponting	18	Warner	36
Watson	24	Smith	43
Hussey	30	Rogers	46
Total:	101	Total:	162

Prior (pun intended) to last time here, the Aussies had theoretically the marginally stronger batting line up, yet there is little question as to whose batsmen dominated the series. This time, the difference in Rankin places between the top 5 is simply astonishing. Joe Root is England 6th highest ranked batsmen, and at 33, would be in Australia's top 3. 

Don't pretend you don't want to know how the bowlers line up as well. Here you go... (you won't be disappointed)

England top 5 bowlers
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Swann	2	Swann	7
Anderson	5	Anderson	10
Broad	9	Broad	11
Finn	24	Finn	20
Panesar	26	Bresnan	24
Total:	66	Total:	72
Australia top 5 bowlers
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Johnson	6	Harris	6
Bollinger	7	Siddle	7
Siddle	15	Hilfenhaus	15
Hilfenhaus	16	Lyon	21
Watson	29	Johnson	23
Total:	73	Total:	72

Never again can the word 'statto' ever have negative connotations (I never understood the Root of that criticism anyway). England's bowlers were ranked slightly better last time out, but ahead of this week's clash, they are tied dead even. I appreciate that these won't be the 5 bowlers each team play (especially as England only play 4) but there's no denying the similarities. Something else that is striking, and which may be a huge factor as the winter develops, is the consistency of England's squad, both in batting and bowling - 4 of the top 5 have remained the same in each category. Consistency doesn't equal success but it could go a long way. This may ring a Bell from this summer, given that there's little doubt that inexperience cost Australia in the summer, failing to convert promising positions and being unable to dig themselves out of tricky situations. It's not to say that we'll Swann our way through the first couple of days, but there will be a lot less fear and "rabbit in headlights" than last time we were here.

Will England make history in winning 4 series in a row, for the first time since it all began, when they won 8 on the Trott? I've made a fool of myself with Broad predictions too many times to repeat the trick here so I'll just say that I would love to hear Warne embarrass himself further by saying we're too defensive yet again. It seems he'll only be satisfied if we beat them 5-0.

PS I apologise if you've Haddin-uff of the puns. Clarke my words, I'd be Lyon if I said it was easy to Ballance writing a real post with one that just Stokes the reader's fury. I was glad to Finnish though

Not Bad for a Dying Format

Unquestionably man of the hour

Short of writing some kind of dissertation-length post, there is really going to be no way of describing what has taken place in Nottingham over the last five days. Generally with major sporting events you can't wait for the next match and struggle to imagine how you'll survive a few days' gap but in this instance I think we'll all be grateful for a bit of a rest so we can let our heart-rates stabilise. I imagine plant life across the UK suffered from all the lack of carbon dioxide in the air as most of the country has been holding its breath since Wednesday. Needless to say, it's was pretty dramatic right to the death.

From Starc's wayward first ball to the inevitable DRS-induced conclusion, this game had the lot. Batting collapses, spin, swing, reverse swing, a century, three 5 wicket hauls, a record partnership and record debut innings, a whole host of controversy and a desperately tight finish. If this match is setting the tone for the rest of the series then 2005 might have to rethink its title of "The Greatest Series". 

A somewhat enjoyable moment

I've scarcely seen a game with the team in the ascendancy changing so often. England started reasonably well, before collapsing to a meagre 215. Australia failed to capitalise, being skittled to 117-9 before debutant Agar (alongside Phillip Hughes) wrestled back the initiative. The Aussies were seemingly on top until Cook, Pietersen, Bell and Broad batted England into the lead again. What had appeared a total beyond the brittle Australian top order then seemed possible at 84-0, 111-1 and 161-3. A brilliant burst last night and consistent wickets this morning left an England win a near-certainty, before Haddin and Pattinson kept hearts in mouths until the last.

There's so much to choose from but here are my particular highlights:

1) Agar: not that he batted so well and isn't it great to see a young man doing so well etc. No, what I liked is that he got out 2 runs short of his century. Come on people, he's Australian (half at least), we have to be ruthless with them. If you don't think 2 runs can make a difference, just ask Michael Kasprowicz.

Unexpectedly gritty

2) Ian Bell: One of the most elegant, stylish batters who has long been seen as fair-weather, only scoring hundreds when conditions are good or England are on top. And yet, he's now joint 10th on the list of English test-centurions, level with Vaughan and Gower, ahead of Atherton, Hobbs, Sutcliffe.
3) This Aussie article which says that cricket won, not England, that pays a decidedly backhanded compliment to Bell, talks about the "inner grubbiness of the soul" in relation to Broad, the vulnerability of Finn, and suggests that no-one can really be sure if Haddin edged it or not. Ah Australia, this is what makes beating you so enjoyable. Hopefully you are going to have a full 6 months of learning how to be better losers.

Typical England, we're so frail and inconsistent... Oh wait

It is clear that England are a weak, vulnerable and inconsistent team, relying on a few star players, most of whom aren't even English. That's why, after they scrape a win at Lord's purely by virtue of injuring their opponents, they just collapse in the face of a bit of pressure.


Put into bat in ideal conditions (a heavy cloud cover and irregular bounce), they can't even get to 125 without losing 8 wickets. A few lucky slogs and they scrape to a meagre 221. So much for challenging to be the best team in the world!


It was highly fortunate for England to be bowled out at that time, leaving India a difficult period in the evening on Friday. Mukund's wicket was a joke really, England using such gamesmanship like warming up before bowling, putting fielders in places where they could catch the ball and bowling quicker than 75mph. Just not on really.


Dravid & Laxman showed them how to bat - these are two class batsmen who know how to perform under pressure, not like Ian Bell or someone! There's no way he'd cope with being moved to a different position in the order during a match and having to overturn a deficit in classy style and go onto score big runs. Not a chance.


So then Stuart Broad managed to get a few tailenders out, conveniently taking advantage of the lack of DRS for LBW decisions. Frankly I'd rather not get a hatrick if it was achieved in such a manner. He should be ashamed of himself. How can you expect India to score 300+ in those circumstances, or any circumstances indeed?

Alastair Cook showing his true colours with another performance you'd expect from the so-called run-machine. I think he may require an MOT. 
Trott's wimpish injury (dislocated shoulder! I've had worse playing pro-evo) meant that Bell came in at 3, where we all know he can't bat. Fortunately he hardly scored any runs, and most of the runs he did get he did so by just wandering down the pitch as he felt like it and then crying to Mummy Flower when he was run out. Luckily for him, MS appears to stand for Majorly Soft or possibly Massive Sucker. There's been a lot of talk about how good it was of India to let Bell back into bat but there's a couple of things about that:


1) we always gave our younger brother two lives (*also, if he was out golden duck it "didn't count") - surely similar rules apply to such a diminuitive fella like Ian.
2) The overlooked but more significant demonstration of thoughtfulness came from the Indian bowlers, who, aware that Bell/Morgan probably didn't get much to eat during tea cos of the stress, dished up some lovely buffet bowling, on which the English(/Irish) feasted.

As well as the after-tea nutrition, there was a healthy and decidedly ample breakfast laid on for Bresnan and Broad. Despite this, England were only able to set a target of 478, which was really very get-able, after all, 3 times in test match history teams have chased down more than 200 runs at Trent Bridge, so why not another couple of hundred to set the record? 


Given that it was a reserve bowler who took most of the wickets in the second Indian innings, it doesn't really count and I'm sure that if Gamhir/Sehwag were there things would have been different. As it was, India didn't really make too much of an effort - fair play I suppose, always good to let the underdogs take a game or two. 


All in all, a very weak and inconsistent team at the moment - we'll be lucky to win another match this series. Heaven knows what will happen against West Indies next summer.


Anyway, here are the traditional (2nd match in a row) ratings that you're (both) clamouring for:
Strauss - 48 runs but another victory 4/10
Cook - I never rated him. Another couple of failures with the bat, now averages the lowest of all England players across the two games (CT/JA haven't been out) 0/10
Trott - joking aside, clearly wasn't fit in the second innings but somehow managed to score even less that Cook, I'll cut him some slack and go for 1/10
Pietersen - couple of decent knocks, looks in good touch really. 7/10
Bell - as discussed, very poor performance from him. As a result, only 9/10
Morgan - wasn't really there when we needed him 1st innings but was able to play like an ODI in the second for a good 70. 6/10
Prior - as per Eoin 6/10
Bresnan - 7 wickets (at 14 runs each) plus 101 runs isn't bad for a second stringer. May have earned himself a place for the 3rd test. 9/10
Broad - Another exceptional performance, made all the more impressive because he got his runs when we were seriously under the cosh and got his wickets when the game was running away from us. In other words, people like Bresnan and Bell did the damage, but were only able to because Broad had saved us from the brink. Worthy MotM 10/10
Swann - Oh Swanny, where are you mate? Decent and very important knock in the first innings but 97 runs for no wickets isn't the return you'd expect from the world's best spinner, even if the seamers were doing the job anyway. Let's hope it was just a bruised hand and not a sign of his form. 3/10
Anderson - quietly picked up 5 wickets in the match at only 26 and continues to lead the attack well. 7/10


Mukund - 3 runs probably isn't what the selectors were hoping for to be honest 0/10
Dravid - another century in vain, he must wonder why he bothers. Hopefully he won't at Edgbaston. That would help. A shame he couldn't put up a Wall when India really needed it on Monday. 8/10
Laxman - has threatened to really come good but not quite there yet. Again, went missing when his country need him. 6/10
Tendulkar - the wait for the hundredth hundred continues. And in this form, it may wait all summer. 6/10
Raina - the promised showed at Lord's was left thoroughly unfulfilled in Nottinghamshire by Suresh. If all you had to do was bowl a bouncer or two at him, it makes you wonder how he scored so many last test match. Very weak game for him 2/10
Yuvraj - offers a good option with the ball, especially with Habhajan bowling like a Dad trying to build his son's confidence with a few underarms, and can do damage with the bat but as with his whole career really, lacking concentration and consistency. Will surely make way for Gambhir and/or Sehwag. 62 and the wicket of Bell earn him 6/10
Dhoni - sadly no points for sportsmanship, which is a shame for MS, cos he sure isn't going to win any for his field placements or batting skills. The 4th Indian golden duck of the match and the final nail in the coffin. 0/10
Harbhajan - 67/1 doesn't look too bad really, given that the Turbanator is bowling a lot of unthreatening Ashley Giles at the moment. His only consolation is that Swann isn't doing much better. Nice little cameo with the bat though. 2/10
Kumar - Praveen is picking up a good number of wickets, he now has 13 for the series, second only behind Broad. But frankly, I can't help thinking he gets wickets mostly just because no-one else in the Indian team does. Still, you can't argue with 169/7 - 7/10
Ishant - five wickets in the match may seem like a decent effort, but at nearly 40 runs a pop, he probably won't be opening the bubbly. 4/10
Sreesanth - as with Ishant, 5 wickets, but at 42 runs each. Nothing to write home about and certainly nothing to threaten Zaheer's return should his hamstring return to full working order. 4/10


Team totals:
England - 62
India - 45


Prediction time:
It looked for a while as though my 100-150 run victory could be accurate. Little did I account for Tim Bresnan. India will be stronger with a bit of a break and a couple of big players to return but it would take a massive turn around to stop England securing the top spot in the ICC rankings next weekend. England to win again