Just how important are the ATP Tour Finals?

2012 Paris finalists

Just how important are the ATP Tour Finals?

With the Paris Masters starting this week, it offers a final chance for qualification to the ATP Tour Finals at the O2. There are 2 places still to play for, to be fought out between Federer, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Tsonga and Raonic. Haas, Youzhny and Almagro still have very slim hopes and need to win in Paris to even have a chance. It adds a new dimension to a tournament that otherwise can be a bit of a damp squib. For once, all of the major seeds (bar Murray due to injury) are participating and the final weekend could produce a top match (a slight contrast to last year's closing stages). 

Surprise entrant to 2008
Masters Cup finals

Which leads into the tour finals. It has been something of a mixed bag in recent years. The 2010 edition was the only year in recent history with the top 8 players actually competing, all of the others (including this year) having suffered at least one withdrawal, either before or during tournament. There was a ridiculous situation in 2008 when Nadal withdraw drew to fatigue and then Roddick pulled out after one match, having turned his ankle. This led to 26th ranked Radek Stepanek playing the final two group games (losing both), purely by virtue of being the highest ranked person prepared to travel to Shanghai. He was there without racquets, socks and even contact lenses. In 2009 Davydenko beat Del Potro in the final, but then it hit the heights with an amazing final between Federer and Nadal in 2010. 

In terms of ranking points, it is between Grand Slams and 1000 Series tournaments (like Paris this week), with a potential 1500 points to an undefeated champion (Grand Slams are 2000 points, 1000 series are (remarkably) worth 1000). So how much does it mean to a top player? How significant will they be looking back in history? Theoretically you wold think that a competition between only the game's elite would matter hugely in evaluating the quality of a player compared to his peers, but the reality is that the tournament is blighted by end-of-season fatigue and injuries.

Federer has won it 6 times and Djokovic twice, but Nadal has 0 wins and Murray's not yet even made a final. Of course the same old arguments arise about standard of opposition but the truth is that it's more to do with the fact that Nadal and Murray in particular are shattered by the end of a season and needing time to rest/recover for the next season. Fairly frequently Nadal/Djokovic are in the Davis Cup Final as well. 

In reality, a tournament that should be an absolute pinnacle and exciting climax to the season often fails to deliver and is unlikely to be considered a significant factor in considering players' legacies. Nevertheless, let's hope that this November's edition proves to be a classic. 

ATP World Four Finals

Two years ago, in the first ATP World Tour Finals in London, Nikolay Davydenko won the tournament. The Russian was ranked 6th after a season where he made just 1 Grand Slam quarter final (French), and won only 1 title all year. No-one would claim that our bald Mr Consistent was the best player in the world that year but the truth was, everyone else was knackered. Del Potro, newly crowned US Open Champion, fought through to the final and then proceeded to put in one of the weariest performances of his career. With Nadal, Murray and Djokovic all eliminated in the groups, it was very much a damp squib of a season climax.


Then last year, the tournament exceeded all expectations, the big four filling the semi-final slots and Murray/Nadal producing one of the most epic 3 set matches in recent history. It also saw Roger Federer playing the sort of breathtaking tennis that he's capable of but only sporadically produces and inflicting upon Djokovic his last defeat before his marathon winning run, ended 6 months later at Roland Garros by the Swiss himself. 


So which way will this year go? The few months after the US Open are always strange, players missing tournaments and retirements/withdrawals aplenty. But after a run of tournaments that aren't prioritised by the top players, the O2 presents a crucial challenge to all 8 of the competitors this year.

Djokovic has unquestionably been the best player in the world this year, with a season virtually unmatched in history (that said, RF went 81-4 in '05 and 92-5 in '06, ND is currently 69-4). It is only fitting surely that he finishes the year off by sealing his second Tour Finals victory (won in '08). But he's been struggling with a shoulder injury and hasn't won anything since the US Open. He'd be a deserving winner but is that going to be enough?


Nadal has never won the Tour Finals and, given that he's one of the greatest players ever, he must claim it at some stage. His physical style batters his body and so he usually comes to the end of the season weary and not performing his best. In the final against Federer last year he was certainly affected by the length and intensity of the semi against Murray the day before. He's not played since Shanghai in early October so how he's playing or what kind of fitness he's got will be as hard to predict as the overall winner.


Murray will of course never win a Grand Slam, purely by virtue of the fact that he's British, so is this the biggest prize to target? He's never really threatened to win the whole thing, but knows he can beat any of the 7 and there's surely no better time to be in Djokovic's group. With the crowd behind him but less pressure than at Wimbledon, if he is fit, this may well be his year.


Federer has found some incredible form, claiming his first Paris Masters' title, and is unbeaten in 12 matches since the US Open. He's won this title 5 times and showed last year that he can produce even when he's been written off. How he'd love to show people yet again that he's as good as ever, and with the form behind him, you can't blame the bookies for making him favourite.


For Ferrer, Fish, Tsonga and Berdych, this title, especially against the other four competitors would undoubtably be the highlight of their careers thus far, but unless it's a 2009 repeat, I don't give them much chance.


Given that whatever I predict on this blog, it goes completing the opposite way, I won't jinx anyone. I just hope it's more like last year than the year before.