Ashes Preview, stat-attack and pun-athon

After the shortest wait in Ashes history, this week sees the return to the England-Australia cricketing battlefield. After England's successful summer, the record stands at 31 series victories each (5 drawn), only adding to the significance of already something of a meaningful set of matches. With England marginal favourites to repeat their triumph of 2010-11, all of the talk, predictions and injury-waiting will soon be at an end. Few would argue that the 3-0 victory in the summer was perhaps not as convincing as the scoreline would suggest, and it'll take a marked improvement from Cook's men to repeat the trick down under. That being said, you could say there is a lot more to come from the likes of Cook, Trott and Pietersen - leaving the Aussies quaking at the prospect of absurd run-scoring like the last time in Oz. 

It is interesting to compare the two squads in relation to the last time we were here, namely November 2010. Believe it or not, I like a stat. Especially when I have a hunch then do the research and the genuine stats reflect what I wanted to say (I don't like having to Cook them up)

Looking at the top 5 ranked batsmen from each team now and from the 18th November 2010 tells an interesting story:

England top 5 batsmen
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Trott	16	Bell	10
Pietersen	23	Cook	11
Strauss	25	Pietersen	13
Bell	26	Trott	15
Cook	29	Prior	17
Total:	119	Total:	66
Australia top 5 batsmen
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Clarke	14	Clarke	5
Katich	15	Watson	32
Ponting	18	Warner	36
Watson	24	Smith	43
Hussey	30	Rogers	46
Total:	101	Total:	162

Prior (pun intended) to last time here, the Aussies had theoretically the marginally stronger batting line up, yet there is little question as to whose batsmen dominated the series. This time, the difference in Rankin places between the top 5 is simply astonishing. Joe Root is England 6th highest ranked batsmen, and at 33, would be in Australia's top 3. 

Don't pretend you don't want to know how the bowlers line up as well. Here you go... (you won't be disappointed)

England top 5 bowlers
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Swann	2	Swann	7
Anderson	5	Anderson	10
Broad	9	Broad	11
Finn	24	Finn	20
Panesar	26	Bresnan	24
Total:	66	Total:	72
Australia top 5 bowlers
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Johnson	6	Harris	6
Bollinger	7	Siddle	7
Siddle	15	Hilfenhaus	15
Hilfenhaus	16	Lyon	21
Watson	29	Johnson	23
Total:	73	Total:	72

Never again can the word 'statto' ever have negative connotations (I never understood the Root of that criticism anyway). England's bowlers were ranked slightly better last time out, but ahead of this week's clash, they are tied dead even. I appreciate that these won't be the 5 bowlers each team play (especially as England only play 4) but there's no denying the similarities. Something else that is striking, and which may be a huge factor as the winter develops, is the consistency of England's squad, both in batting and bowling - 4 of the top 5 have remained the same in each category. Consistency doesn't equal success but it could go a long way. This may ring a Bell from this summer, given that there's little doubt that inexperience cost Australia in the summer, failing to convert promising positions and being unable to dig themselves out of tricky situations. It's not to say that we'll Swann our way through the first couple of days, but there will be a lot less fear and "rabbit in headlights" than last time we were here.

Will England make history in winning 4 series in a row, for the first time since it all began, when they won 8 on the Trott? I've made a fool of myself with Broad predictions too many times to repeat the trick here so I'll just say that I would love to hear Warne embarrass himself further by saying we're too defensive yet again. It seems he'll only be satisfied if we beat them 5-0.

PS I apologise if you've Haddin-uff of the puns. Clarke my words, I'd be Lyon if I said it was easy to Ballance writing a real post with one that just Stokes the reader's fury. I was glad to Finnish though

English lambs before the Aussie slaughter

You don't have to be Glenn McGrath to know that England have very little chance in the remainder of this series. The dominant Australia batsmen, coupled with their prolific wicket-taking attack will surely be too much for the meagre poor English lambs. Putting aside all emotion and subjectivity, the positive thinking for which us Brits are famed, is there any hope for us?

Yes we have scraped through two matches thus far, reliant on a potent and controversial combination of dubious umpiring decisions, dodgy technology and being better than Australia. There's only so long though that we can rely on greater skill and application, and surely this Thursday will be the time for Australia's brilliance to become apparent. The question must be whether there is anything we can do to stop the surely inevitable demolition?

Let's look at the facts:

- England only have 3 batsmen averaging over 40 in the series. I appreciate that Australia only have 3 over 30, and one of those (Pattinson) is out injured for the rest of the series and the other is a teenage spin bowler, but that won't matter.

- England have no replacement for the likely absent Pietersen. Of course, James Taylor will play but I don't see him scoring any runs against the Australians.

Waterboy or run-machine?

- David Warner is back. Guaranteed to knock get Joe Root out, and fresh from a massive 193 against the mighty South Africa A, he's sure to be a threat. After all, prior to that innings he had scores of 6, 11, 9, 0, 0, 2, 0, 44, 4 and 13. Devastating stuff for England to fear.

- Australia have the series record for the opening, 9th and 10th wicket partnerships. England may have the highest partnership for all the other wickets, but it's how you start and end that matters isn't it?

I think we can all agree that we're in serious trouble. Just because we've won the first two matches, have the better batting line-up, bowling attack, experience and confidence, surely nothing can stop the organised and professional Aussies. 

Anything but an Ashes whitewash?

Unquestionably, England are overwhelming favourites to take the Ashes over the coming weeks, and convincingly so. Apart from the odd Aussie pundit or ex-player, almost all of the cricketing world is predicting a relatively comfortable victory for Cook and his men. 

So is there any realistic danger of Michael Clarke getting his hands on the urn come the end of August? There are obviously a lot more thorough and expert previews of the series available but here's a quick run down of the factors that can/will make the difference:

1) The squads - looking at the respective records, it is hard to see how the inexperienced Aussies can compete with a English team that is extremely well settled and have dealt with a range of opponents and conditions. Although the bowling units are relatively well matched, it is with willow in hand that England will surely dominate. The below table shows the comparison of averages (not too dissimilar in fairness) but also the number of test matches played by each team's potential top 9. The contrast is startling and could be crucial over the course of the toughest series in test cricket.

Root - 42.4 (6 tests)	Rogers - 9.5 (1)
Cook - 49.2 (92)	Warner - 39.5 (19)
Trott - 50 (43)	Watson - 35.3 (31)
Pietersen - 49.1 (94)	Clarke - 52.3 (92)
Bell - 45.6 (88)	Khawaja - 29.2 (6)
Bairstow - 31 (8)	Hughes - 33 (24)
Prior - 44.3 (67)	Haddin - 35.5 (42)
Bresnan - 31.3 (18)	Starc - 32.7 (9)
Broad - 24.6 (57)	Pattinson - 28.8 (10)
Swann - 23.2 (52)	Harris – 17.7 (12)
Total = 390.7 (525)	Total = 313.5 (246)

*I appreciate that this won't likely be the order of the Oz batting line up but given that they've selected 19 openers, it's quite hard to predict 

2) The pressure - there has been a lot of talk about how England will cope (or not cope) with being favourites. As the top ranked test team they won just 1 of 4 series and seemed unable to live up to the top billing. Just look at the series in New Zealand back in the spring.
That being said, the vast experience of the English squad, established team spirit and familiarity with being both ahead and behind in games may well make all the difference. There appears to be a good positive vibe and enthusiasm about the Aussies under Lehmann and no doubt they will be pumped up and raring to go on Wednesday morning, but when they're up against it, Clarke and Watson back in the hutch, who will stand up to fight? No amount of Aussie fighting spirit is going to save you from Anderson, Broad, Finn and Swann when you're 40-4 and the ball is swinging and spinning. I'd be surprised if we don't bowl them out for under 150 at least 2 or 3 times.

3) The weather - Perhaps the only thing that can stop a whitewash. A few lost days and even England's dominance could be thwarted, at least in a couple of matches. If the weather holds as it is currently then it will help the Aussies feel at home but will also enhance the effect of Swann. Given our respective recent results away in India (Eng won 2-1, Aus lost 4-0) and their lack of a quality spinner, the weather really is a no-win situation for the men from Down Under. 

So in answer to my question earlier, no, there is no danger of Clarke getting his hands on the little urn.

The End of an English Era?

As Strauss makes his way out the door, we can look back at recent times. Being an English cricket fan over the last 7 or 8 years has yielded infinitely more joy and success than the 7 or 8 years before. We've seen Ashes wins galore, whitewashing India, a 9 test series undefeated run and perhaps best of all, climbing to the top of the test rankings. 

We've witnessed the emergence of world class players like Cook, Broad and Finn alongside those consistently near the top of the rankings (e.g. Anderson and Pietersen), all combining with a host of late bloomers, coming to the fore as they reach and pass 30 - Trott, Bell, Prior, Swann and Tremlett.

Ably, if never inspirationally, led and managed by the determined and intelligent pairing of Strauss and Flower, England became the best, most consistent and most dominant test team in the world. In the wake of another Pietersen shambles, and after a bizarre series in the West Indies including being dismissed for 51, Andrew & Andy rebuilt an England team and instilled a clinical professionalism and exceptional drive to win. We began to believe in our national team. We convinced that we were the greatest, and could beat anyone or get a result no matter how bad things looked. And for a while we were and we could. 

Coming off the back of demolishing the Aussies down under for the first time in 300 years (fortunately Glenn McGrath's predictive abilities aren't quite as accurate as his bowling), England were on the verge of reaching the top rung of the ranking ladder.

England needed to beat the World No. 1 team by at least two matches in order to displace them at the top. The might of India's batting in the shape of Sehwag, Gambhir, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman and Dhoni came to prevent that from happening. But even when India had us on the ropes, we came out swinging (if you excuse the pun), exemplified by Broad & Bresnan in the second test. In the end, the Wall could only watch as the rest of the house came tumbling down around him, and England claimed a series whitewash and the top spot.

But as has been pointed out, it's not exactly been a dreamy year at the top. The fighting spirit and performance when up against it has been lacking in 2012. Too often we have succumbed when faced with a challenge and lacked the gusto, heart or concentration to scrap our way back in. We folded and collapsed like damp paper against Pakistan, Sri Lanka and now again against South Africa. 

Our batting lacked focus and determination, only showing spirit when attacking with abandon, providing a glossy veneer to otherwise worrying displays. Our success over the last few years kept us believing right up until the moment that Prior's edge found Smith's hands, but the truth is that South Africa were by far the better team all series. Our bowling lacked invention and discipline, with the highest runs per wicket in a series since the 06/07 Ashes whitewash. It would seem a suitable time for Strauss to call it a day.

Shaun Pollock doesn't believe that SA can maintain their status and dominate - they have a few players into their 30s and some tough series coming up, but with the likes of ABDV, Steyn, Morkel, Duminy all still with plenty of years to come, they aren't exactly going to be going anywhere soon. Perhaps they will grow complacent or arrogant, as has been suggested happened with England, only time will tell.

One thing is for sure, whenever Jacque Kallis retires, the game will have lost one of the absolute greats. Few would question that Garfield Sobers was the best all-rounder cricket has ever seen, but it's hard to argue that the big man from Cape Town comes in second. He is the 4th highest test match run scorer in history and right up there with his bowling as well. A truly class act.

The first test passed

A thumpingly convincing start to the series for England can only give us confidence going into Friday's second test. The fact that we've only been bowled out once in the last 4 test matches really has to be looked at positively.


Of course, India struggled with fitness/injury issues but I've said before, fitness is part of greatness - it's not unlucky that Zaheer pulls a hamstring if he's hardly played for 6 months and India haven't had a proper and thorough preparation. It amazes me that in an era with such detailed expertise on sports psychology, nutrition and preparation, cricketing schedules still seem to be put together poorly so frequently. Take England's post-Ashes timetable for a prime example. 


A comparison of the two teams shows how similar they are and yet how England were simply the superior team at Lord's:


Strauss - Mukund: Two left-handed openers, Strauss scored 54 runs, Mukund 62. Pretty similar games I'd say. 4/10 for them both
Cook - Gambhir: Two more lefty openers. Both absolute test match run machines who performed poorly at Lord's. Cook scored 13 off 63 balls - he only gets 2/10. Gambhir, with an injury in the second innings did OK, with 37 in total. He gets 3/10
Trott - Dravid: The parallels between these two hard grafting, battling number 3's are obvious. Awesome test match averages and an ability to hang in there matched in modern cricket only really by Chanderpaul. Trott put in 70 and 22, while Dravid was 103* in the first innings and a nagging 36 in the second. They score 7/10 and 9/10 respectively. 
Pietersen - Tendulkar: Two explosive, devastating and incredibly skilled batters. Two greats of the game - one has a long way to go to prove his true greatness, but took a massive step here. One has no critics to answer but bluntly put, performed poorly in this match. Sachin is of course the legend but in this contest, it was Pietersen who was the match-winner. KP 10/10, ST 4/10
Bell - Laxman: Another pair of remarkably similar batsmen, with beautiful stroke-making and a stylish and crowd-pleasing technique. Yet both are prone to a lapse in concentration and such was the case at Lord's. VVS threw away a strong start in the second innings with a lazy swipe, fitting that it was his opposite number who nonchalantly plucked it out of the air. Bell 4/10, Laxman 5/10
Morgan - Raina: Two lefties who have made their name in limited overs cricket and have serious potential in the test arena. Raina showed good form in the second innings (and particularly benefited from India vetoing DRS on LBW decisions). Eoin played an important role in stopping the second innings rot but contributed only 19 runs so scores just 2/10. Suresh gave India hope for a while but his 78 proved to be in vain but for scoring him 6/10 with me.
Prior - Dhoni: Another easy comparison, two aggressive wicketkeeper batsmen. Only this time out, it was only Matt Prior who dominated with the bat, as well as being the better keeper. 178 runs, including an unbeaten century in extremely difficult circumstances, compared to a mere 44 from MS means the Sussex gloveman scores 10/10 and the Indian captain takes home just 3/10 alongside his excuses.
Swann - Harbhajan: two top-class off-spinners who can bat aggressively. Swann did a great job, adding 24 quick runs in his only innings, Habhajan looked thoroughly uncomfortable with the bat and scored just 12 across his two innings. With the ball, Swann returned only 114/2 but his Indian equivalent took just 208/1, at nearly 2 runs per over more as well. No question who wins this match-up. The best spinner in the world 6/10. The Turbanator just 1/10.
Broad - Zaheer: I know I've played about with the order but these two top class bowlers came into the game with question marks over their heads. One off form and the other unfit. Broad returned to form, Zaheer most definitely did not return to fitness. Even if ZK makes it to Edgbaston officially not injured, he is certainly not going to be at the height of fitness. Broad played exceptionally, with bat and ball, so scores 9/10 while Zaheer's brief bowling spell in the first innings earns him a 4/10. May seem harsh but there's no prizes for  bowling a couple of early strikes before leaving the alley.

Tremlett - Sharma: Two tall bouncy pace bowlers that had mixed games. Tremlett was somewhat overshadowed by his colleagues' feats but 124/4 isn't exactly a poor performance. Especially not when you see that Ishant took 187/4 - one good spell can win you a match but apparently not this time. Tremmers 7/10, Ishant 6/10
Anderson - Kumar: The two swing bowlers (I know, I've really played with the order but it's their bowling that matters). Both found their names engraved on the Lord's Honours Board for 5 wicket hauls - Over the two innings, Kumar took 176/6 but the new world number 2 bowler came home with figures of 152/7 and a truly match-winning display on day 5, taking the not insignificant scalps of Dravid, Laxman, Tendulkar and Raina (total test match average if you're wondering, 194). Jimmy scores 9/10, with Praveen a very decent 8/10. 


I'm sure the Will Huntings among you have worked it out already but this leaves the total scores, out of 110 of course as follows:


England = 70
India = 53


There's been a lot of talk about India being slow starters, and I know well enough how England can collapse after an early good performance (see Perth 2010 vs Aus, Headlingley 2009 vs Aus, The Oval 2010 vs Pakistan), but there's every reason to be confident. If the batting can keep up its recent consistency, I can only see one winner. England by 100-150 runs or by 5-7 wickets