Into the second week and Murray couldn't have asked for a much better last 16 opponent that Mikhail Kukushkin. The Kazakh world 92 had won an overwhelming total of 2 Grand Slam matches in his entire career prior to this tournament, but wins against Garcia-Lopez (66), Troicki (23) and Monfils (15) have rocketed him to a position he could never have imagined or hoped for a week ago. He now faces the biggest match of his career and a chance to seriously make a name for himself, and perhaps more significantly, claim enough points to climb 50 odd places in the rankings, and break the top 50 for the first time.
Murray beat him fairly unconvincingly in 3 sets in Brisbane,
in his first match of the season a couple of weeks ago so there's always the potential for a bit of trouble but realistically, in a match of this significance, Murray should crush him.
It's a bit like Chelsea (ranked 4th) playing Northampton Town in the FA Cup 5th round, after the Cobblers knocked out Rochdale (66), Cardiff (23) and West Brom (15) - you don't expect to see the League 2 relegation strugglers causing too much of a threat. It might be a different matter if Murray's defence consisted of the the tennis equivalent of David Luiz but fortunately he's more like the Chelsea of Mourinho than AVB.
Then again, Kukushkin plays his Davis Cup tennis in the World Group, the top tier, and will be up against Nadal et al. of champions Spain in February. Murray and Great Britain, in the European section of the 3rd tier, will be playing the Slovak Republic, including giants of the men's game such as Lacko and Klizan (yes I did have to look them up) - so maybe Mikhail should be going in as the overdog (not sure that'll catch on).
Should Murray overcome his unseeded opponent, it is highly likely to be JWT that awaits in the quarter final. The 2008 finalist and 6th seed will have the disadvantage of being French, something our Scottish hero seems to thrive on, as Llodra and Roger-Vasselin have found out to their misfortune. Nationality aside though, Tsonga will be a formidable opponent. I briefly touched on his strong end to 2011 last time out, and nothing so far this tournament suggests he is going to be anything less than extremely competitive. Although Murray holds a 5-1 head-to-head, JWT's win came at none other than the Australian Open, when the unseeded 23 year old from Le Mans powered his way past Murray (9), Gasquet (8), Youzhny (14) and Nadal (2), before losing to Djokovic in 4 sets. I shouldn't like to rule out Nishikori's chances on Monday but I can't help but feel the all important "second week" at this Slam is going to be a short one for the first ever Japanese player to get there.
Only minor shocks so far really (e.g. Raonic/Hewitt, Falla/Fish, Benneteau/Simon) and all the main men looking pretty comfortable. Sensible money seems to still be on Novak but cruising through early on doesn't really mean anything and this time next week the moment of truth will be on us.
Almost exactly a year on since my first blog post and I find myself returning after a festive hiatus from whence I began, namely tennis and the Australian Open.
Last year the (inaccurate) predictions centred around Nadal and Federer, and no big surprise they're in the running again. But who was to know that a wheat-free diet could lead to a defeat-free first few months of the season for Djokovic. The 2011 Aussie Open turned out to be the first leg in a somewhat memorable run and led the Serb to becoming the main man of the tennis world and most decidedly the man to beat.
Back down under 12 months later, it's hard to see past the same old four again...
Novak Djokovic - The world number 1 (by a long way) goes in as firm favourite. He's not had a competitive warm-up tournament but did comfortably dispose of Monfils, Federer and Ferrer in the Abu Dhabi exhibition. His Grand Slam record of 25-1 in 2011 will take some matching but it's difficult to imagine that anyone could stop him before at least the quarters when he could meet someone like Tsonga or Del Potro.
However, Nole's fitness is always a factor to consider, and something often omitted from the story of last season. Taking nothing away from the greatness of the year, he did withdraw from 8 tournaments during the season (*Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, Queens, Cincinnati, Davis Cup SF, China Open, Shanghai, Paris) and pulled out here a couple of years ago with heat exhaustion. A different man these days maybe, but still liable to start feeling the pressure if anyone can get a set or two ahead.
Rafael Nadal - The Spaniard has won a Grand Slam every year since 2005, but he goes into this season perhaps as off-form and fitness as we've seen him since the summer of '09. Although the venue for one of the greatest Federer-Nadal clashes, the Aussie Open hasn't been happy hunting for Rafa generally speaking. Only once other than that epic final has he even made the semis, and last year limped out sadly to countryman Ferrer. Reckless to ever write off the battling leftie but perhaps not surprising he's got the longest odds of all 4.
Roger Federer - The Swiss comes into the tournament on the back of a pretty significant 21 match winning run, nearly half of what ND achieved last season. One could claim that he cynically protected it by withdrawing prior to a tricky tie against Tsonga but with only 2 mid-tournament withdrawals in his career, I don't think that really fits with his competitive nature. He's going to be a serious threat but everyone wobbles at some point in a GS and Roger seems to do it at somewhat crucial moments these days. He's gone nearly two years since winning a Slam and the next few weeks could be crucial to how the rest of his season, and career, will pan out.
Andy Murray - The addition of Ivan Lendl to his backroom staff must surely be a big benefit. Read nothing into the win in Brisbane against no stiff opposition, it's on the Rod Laver arena that Murray's fate will be decided. Djokovic is younger than Murray and so the Scot can't hope to just outlast his rival - he needs to step up soon or risk his entire career being in the shadow of the Serb (and Nadal who's only a year older and had 9 GS by Murray's current age). Lendl lost 4 Grand Slam finals before his 1984 triumph at Roland Garros, and then went on to win 8 in total. If his new charge can do anything like that then it's safe to say it'll have been a good appointment by the British No. 1. Another chance for Murray to show he's got the mental and physical strength to last through the toughest test, in the first major of one of the most eagerly anticipated seasons in recent history.
Others to watch out for - Tsonga could be very dangerous indeed. A great second half to 2011 and a good win in Doha. He's going to make a very awkward QF opponent for one of the above. Raonic has just won in Chennai and could well cause a bit of an upset - he's likely to meet a top seed around R3 and if he can keep a lid on the UFE, is very dangerous. Tomic gave Nadal a bit of a scare last year, and although swept away by Murray in Brisbane, is inspired by an Aussie crowd and will certainly fancy his chances of making the latter rounds. And at some point, JMDP will be fully fit again, and the top 4 could become a top 5.
I can't wait...
Two years ago, in the first ATP World Tour Finals in London, Nikolay Davydenko won the tournament. The Russian was ranked 6th after a season where he made just 1 Grand Slam quarter final (French), and won only 1 title all year. No-one would claim that our bald Mr Consistent was the best player in the world that year but the truth was, everyone else was knackered. Del Potro, newly crowned US Open Champion, fought through to the final and then proceeded to put in one of the weariest performances of his career. With Nadal, Murray and Djokovic all eliminated in the groups, it was very much a damp squib of a season climax.
Then last year, the tournament exceeded all expectations, the big four filling the semi-final slots and Murray/Nadal producing one of the most epic 3 set matches in recent history. It also saw Roger Federer playing the sort of breathtaking tennis that he's capable of but only sporadically produces and inflicting upon Djokovic his last defeat before his marathon winning run, ended 6 months later at Roland Garros by the Swiss himself.
So which way will this year go? The few months after the US Open are always strange, players missing tournaments and retirements/withdrawals aplenty. But after a run of tournaments that aren't prioritised by the top players, the O2 presents a crucial challenge to all 8 of the competitors this year.
Djokovic has unquestionably been the best player in the world this year, with a season virtually unmatched in history (that said, RF went 81-4 in '05 and 92-5 in '06, ND is currently 69-4). It is only fitting surely that he finishes the year off by sealing his second Tour Finals victory (won in '08). But he's been struggling with a shoulder injury and hasn't won anything since the US Open. He'd be a deserving winner but is that going to be enough?
Nadal has never won the Tour Finals and, given that he's one of the greatest players ever, he must claim it at some stage. His physical style batters his body and so he usually comes to the end of the season weary and not performing his best. In the final against Federer last year he was certainly affected by the length and intensity of the semi against Murray the day before. He's not played since Shanghai in early October so how he's playing or what kind of fitness he's got will be as hard to predict as the overall winner.
Murray will of course never win a Grand Slam, purely by virtue of the fact that he's British, so is this the biggest prize to target? He's never really threatened to win the whole thing, but knows he can beat any of the 7 and there's surely no better time to be in Djokovic's group. With the crowd behind him but less pressure than at Wimbledon, if he is fit, this may well be his year.
Federer has found some incredible form, claiming his first Paris Masters' title, and is unbeaten in 12 matches since the US Open. He's won this title 5 times and showed last year that he can produce even when he's been written off. How he'd love to show people yet again that he's as good as ever, and with the form behind him, you can't blame the bookies for making him favourite.
For Ferrer, Fish, Tsonga and Berdych, this title, especially against the other four competitors would undoubtably be the highlight of their careers thus far, but unless it's a 2009 repeat, I don't give them much chance.
Given that whatever I predict on this blog, it goes completing the opposite way, I won't jinx anyone. I just hope it's more like last year than the year before.
We've got that Dentyl mouthwash that has both green and blue liquid in it. You shake it and it becomes somewhat turquoise and then after a while the colours settle back down into separate layers.
The first few months of the Premiership are much the same. Teams like Blackpool last year find themselves flying, only to settle back to where they're destined to fight for survival. And teams like Arsenal of this year struggle initially only to slowly rise and challenge for the European places. By early November, the table has started to roughly resemble how it will look in May (with a few exceptions - sorry Toon Army, it ain't gonna last)
Now that we're into double figures in the Played column and it's no longer what can be appropriately described as 'early season', the question really must be
"Can anyone stop City?"
They're 5 points clear, have dropped just 2 points all season and since beating Everton 2-0 on 24th September, they have scored 20 goals in 5 league matches, never failing to score at least 3 goals in a match. Which of Aguero, Balotelli, Silva, Nasri, Dzeko, or Toure would fail to get into any team in the league? My Football Manager experience tells me that a squad rotation system is for blooding youngsters and giving the players you rely on a bit of a break, not just because you've got so many world class players it's fun to experiment. My mistake.
The only comfort for Utd, Chelsea et al. is that City haven't been here before. They have multiple league winners in their squad but as a club they're very much new to leading the league and being title favourites. They could yet turn out to be a Newcastle of 95-96, who led by 12 points at Christmas time, only to be overhauled by Utd.
Every team has poor spells of form or a month with a few key injuries, the only question is how City will cope when that inevitably comes. So far they've managed to combine devastating (e.g. at Old Trafford) with gritty (e.g. yesterday at Loftus) and get the results every time. When the Champions League knockouts, the FA Cup, even the Carling Cup, are all knocking at the door, Mancini's plate-spinning skills are really going to be tested.
But I think the hardest challenge for City this season could be the 2012 African Cup of Nations in January. So far this year Yaya has been their driving force, providing infinite energy and power as well as attacking prowess. Most importantly for City he combines the ability to go forward and create & score goals with the defensive skills required to allow Mancini to play multiple forwards. Players like Barry/Hargreaves/De Jong offer the defensive side, players like Silva/Nasri/Johnson offer the sleight, skilful attacking side. When Yaya is away for what is likely to be the full 3 weeks, it is going to really test the depth and mental strength of the new league leaders, especially during what is traditionally United's strongest period of the season...
A thoroughly unusual and surely unique sensation overcame me at around 9.05am on Sunday morning.
Having arisen hours earlier to do my standard 10 mile run, 1 hour Bible study and a plethora of unquantifiably charitable good deeds, I turned onto the ITV website and endured the un-skippable adverts, to find I'd just missed the Haka. As I settled in to watch what I expected to be a whole-heartedly enjoyable devastation de l'equipe francaise (Blogspot won't let me do accents, so no criticism please), it came as something of a shock to find myself supporting not those of an All Black nature, but their Gallic opponents.
I've previously noticed that it can be difficult to determine who you want to win a sporting contest until a moment of great tension, such as a hawk-eye call or penalty shootout, when your true desire is revealed. Can you imagine the surprise then to find in those early moments that I genuinely wanted France? I've pondered long and hard how a true patriotic English sports fan with suitable disdain for anything tricolore could possibly be supporting them with more than a passing interest but nothing conclusive comes to mind. A mystery left unsolved.(*obviously if it was against Germany or Australia one is entitled to support France, or indeed any nation on the planet to be honest).
The truly remarkable effort from the French does set up the 2012 Six Nations to be a potential classic in the history of the tournament. On the eve of the Rugby League Four Nations, it appears as though the annual northern hemisphere round robin could similarly be between four nations. Any of the below must consider themselves strong contenders for the title:
Ireland - defeated Australia during the WC and always difficult to beat, they do have away matches at England and France but 3 home games gives an advantage. They beat England so convincingly to deny them the Grand Slam earlier this year, it'd be crazy to rule them out. A lot might depend on which of the 3 O's are still there (Gara, Connell and Driscoll). William Hill current odds 6/1
Wales - won over many neutrals during the RWC with attacking rugby stemming from a young and energetic team. Considered in most parts as unlucky to go out but a more than mediocre kicking performance and a shaky display in the groups against Samoa suggests they're not quite the finished package yet. Similar to Ireland, they have 3 home games in the 6N, but their away games are in Dublin and London so they'll have to really perform to come out on top. William Hill: 3/1
England - reigning champions who, let's not forget, have a team with vibrant youth and attacking intent buried deep within them. Ashton was joint top try scorer for the RWC, Tuilagi is showing the promise to be a great, and Toby Flood will surely grow into the No 10 jersey which must now be permanently vacated by Wilko, whether he wants to retire or not. Would need to be the first team since Ireland in '09 to win the 6N despite playing 3 away games but with two of them at Scotland and Italy, they'll be in the hunt, regardless of whether Johnno is still in charge. William Hill: 5/2
France - World Cup finalists, beating England and Wales on the way, the mercurial French have been installed as favourites and 3 home matches, including hosting England and Ireland will stand them in good stead. It remains to be seen how Philipe Saint-Andre's management will affect them but if they perform anywhere near the level they produced against New Zealand, it'll be hard to beat them. I can promise my inexplicable spell of amour des cuisses de grenouilles will not be recurring. William Hill favourites at 7/4
After my attempts at making predictions at the quarter final stage, I think I'll steer clear of putting my neck on the line for the time being...
Murray beat him fairly unconvincingly in 3 sets in Brisbane, in his first match of the season a couple of weeks ago so there's always the potential for a bit of trouble but realistically, in a match of this significance, Murray should crush him.
Then again, Kukushkin plays his Davis Cup tennis in the World Group, the top tier, and will be up against Nadal et al. of champions Spain in February. Murray and Great Britain, in the European section of the 3rd tier, will be playing the Slovak Republic, including giants of the men's game such as Lacko and Klizan (yes I did have to look them up) - so maybe Mikhail should be going in as the overdog (not sure that'll catch on).
