Anything but an Ashes whitewash?

Unquestionably, England are overwhelming favourites to take the Ashes over the coming weeks, and convincingly so. Apart from the odd Aussie pundit or ex-player, almost all of the cricketing world is predicting a relatively comfortable victory for Cook and his men. 

So is there any realistic danger of Michael Clarke getting his hands on the urn come the end of August? There are obviously a lot more thorough and expert previews of the series available but here's a quick run down of the factors that can/will make the difference:

1) The squads - looking at the respective records, it is hard to see how the inexperienced Aussies can compete with a English team that is extremely well settled and have dealt with a range of opponents and conditions. Although the bowling units are relatively well matched, it is with willow in hand that England will surely dominate. The below table shows the comparison of averages (not too dissimilar in fairness) but also the number of test matches played by each team's potential top 9. The contrast is startling and could be crucial over the course of the toughest series in test cricket.

Root - 42.4 (6 tests)	Rogers - 9.5 (1)
Cook - 49.2 (92)	Warner - 39.5 (19)
Trott - 50 (43)	Watson - 35.3 (31)
Pietersen - 49.1 (94)	Clarke - 52.3 (92)
Bell - 45.6 (88)	Khawaja - 29.2 (6)
Bairstow - 31 (8)	Hughes - 33 (24)
Prior - 44.3 (67)	Haddin - 35.5 (42)
Bresnan - 31.3 (18)	Starc - 32.7 (9)
Broad - 24.6 (57)	Pattinson - 28.8 (10)
Swann - 23.2 (52)	Harris – 17.7 (12)
Total = 390.7 (525)	Total = 313.5 (246)

*I appreciate that this won't likely be the order of the Oz batting line up but given that they've selected 19 openers, it's quite hard to predict 

2) The pressure - there has been a lot of talk about how England will cope (or not cope) with being favourites. As the top ranked test team they won just 1 of 4 series and seemed unable to live up to the top billing. Just look at the series in New Zealand back in the spring.
That being said, the vast experience of the English squad, established team spirit and familiarity with being both ahead and behind in games may well make all the difference. There appears to be a good positive vibe and enthusiasm about the Aussies under Lehmann and no doubt they will be pumped up and raring to go on Wednesday morning, but when they're up against it, Clarke and Watson back in the hutch, who will stand up to fight? No amount of Aussie fighting spirit is going to save you from Anderson, Broad, Finn and Swann when you're 40-4 and the ball is swinging and spinning. I'd be surprised if we don't bowl them out for under 150 at least 2 or 3 times.

3) The weather - Perhaps the only thing that can stop a whitewash. A few lost days and even England's dominance could be thwarted, at least in a couple of matches. If the weather holds as it is currently then it will help the Aussies feel at home but will also enhance the effect of Swann. Given our respective recent results away in India (Eng won 2-1, Aus lost 4-0) and their lack of a quality spinner, the weather really is a no-win situation for the men from Down Under. 

So in answer to my question earlier, no, there is no danger of Clarke getting his hands on the little urn.

An All Black World Cup?

Ex England winger Ben Cohen: "I can't see New Zealand winning it. I think they will choke."


As the Rugby World Cup begins, the big question is quite simply, can the All Blacks do it at last?


Few sports can ever have been so utterly dominated by one nation. New Zealand are the leading points scorers of all time, have a winning record against every single other test nation, have held top spot in the rankings for more time than all other countries combined (at least 75% of the time) and have only ever been beaten by 5 countries in over 100 years of test match rugby, and only 3 teams have ever beaten them at a World Cup. They have won their world cup pool every single time and have never once lost a pool match.

And yet, not since 20th June 1987 have they held the great trophy aloft. Billed as great chokers, in the mould of the South African cricket team, they fail to perform on the biggest stage. 


They have awesome records against their major rivals, that is until they play them in the World Cup. 


They have beaten Australia 67% of the time (96 of 142 matches). In World Cups, 0% - they've lost both times they've played them (semi's in '91 and '03).
They have beaten South Africa 55% of the time (46 of 83 matches). In World Cups, 33% (1 of 3).
They have beaten France 73.5% of the time (36 of 49). In World Cups, 50% (2 of 4). 

"Mike Catt, door mat"

Against every other team they have won every single match. In other words, they are incredible and overwhelmingly capable, but when it comes to the crunch matches, in the semi's and finals, they just don't do it. What's perhaps even more amazing, given their record against the other nations is that they've only made 1 final in all those years since '87. That was '95, the year of Jonah Lomu. In the games leading up to the final they scored 43 (against Ireland), 34 (Wales), 145 (Japan - a record score), 48 (Scotland) and 45 (England). With such devastating scoring, against a South Africa team performing averagely, there was only one result. They'd scored 41 tries in just 5 matches. 
They managed 3 penalties and a drop goal, all from Andrew Mehrtens. Zero tries and a bizarrely absent performance from Lomu*. They'd bottled it, and haven't got close since. 


Is this year going to change all that?

 * Am I the only person to notice that Jonah Lomu and (Fat) Ronaldo are the same person? Immensely powerful, blisteringly fast, devastating finishers who utterly dominated a World Cup before having a poor and fruitless final, ending in defeat and surrounded by controversy and a mysterious illness. They each hold the World Cup scoring record, of tries and goals respectively. Both with 15. Also, they look identical. It's almost worth a blog post on its own

The (multi)national pastime of choking

I am an avid English sports follower, in all three of the following senses:
a) a follower of English sports
b) an English follower of sports, and perhaps most pertinently, 
c) an English follower of English sports

So, when, in my imperial arrogance, I assume that we should be capable of winning every sporting event we enter and am subsequently let down but abject unlucky failure, I can't help but wonder why.

Links golf proving tough for Donald

I was most recently prompted to think about it by the entertaining British Open Championships. Well done Darren by the way. If we glance at the current world rankings, one can't help but notice positions 1 and 2 being held by Englishmen. Yet neither Westwood nor Donald seems able to perform much better in Majors than their slightly less orthodox namesakes may have been able to.

Westwood hits the decks

The last time an Englishman won a Major was Nick Faldo at the 1996 Masters so perhaps we're just chokers - even when we're the best in the world we can't win the biggest tournaments. When was the last time an English football team won a seriously tough match at a major tournament? You could say , Argentina 2002 with Beckham's so called redemptive penalty but that's a Tina that went out in the groups after failing to beat Sweden, certainly not Germany during Euro 2000 as they were eliminated with just a single point (against Romania) - so how far back do we need to go? Spain on penalties in Euro 1996, maybe the Dutch 4-1 during the group stages? Italia '90 it must be, we got to the Semi's, but played Cameroon (aet) and Belgium (aet) in the knockout stages. I am going to suggest the following:


England have not won a genuinely difficult and significant match in a major tournament since the World Cup Final of 1966.


As true as I believe that statement to be, it wasn't really the purpose of this blog. Rather than the typical English-sport-slating of every journalistic outlet in our green country (I mean literally, lots of grass & fields, not inexperienced, or jealous, or even environmentally friendly), I am going to suggest that a mental frailty or predisposition towards choking under pressure is no more of an English trait than football or tea are originally English inventions.

Who did Faldo beat in the '96 Masters? Greg 'The Shark' Norman - an Aussie. Famous for their determination to win, competitive mentality and strength of self-belief. Yet, leading by 6 shots going into the last round, he managed to play one of the worst final rounds seen until Rory's own version earlier this year. How could an Aussie choke like that?

In cricket, South Africa have consistently one of the strongest ODI teams, combining aggressive but reliable batters with economical but wicket-taking bowlers. They always have good numbers of all-rounders and are always among pre-tournament favourites. Yet they are always labelled chokers and always live up to their label as the tournament unfolds.

What about New Zealand? The All Blacks strike fear into the hearts of their opponents, and not just because of the Haka or Jonah Lomu - they are the strongest, fastest, most powerful and technically gifted rugby union team in the world and have been ranked No 1 in the world for nearly 3/4 of the entire time the rankings have existed. Yet every four years they somehow conspire to fail to win the tournament. We can only dream that this autumn will be the same old story.


USA's women were overwhelming favourites to win the World Cup a record 3rd time, but twice threw away the lead before producing 3 awful penalties to hand the tournament to Japan. Apparently "choke" is the wrong word so perhaps we'll just say that they bottled it.

Asafa Powell, one of the fastest men in history, regularly putting in incredible times, doesn't produce the goods when he's up against Tyson Gay or Usain Bolt - is he choking under the pressure of the big occasion? There innumerable occasions when other individuals or teams have collapsed at crucial moments. And, until only recently, the Spanish national team were routinely ridiculed for underperforming at major tournaments.

So my list of choking nationalities thus far includes the following: England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, USA, Jamaica and Spain. This blog is already too long so I won't go on but I think we can safely say, it's not just an English thing. Is it about a bloody-minded, winning drive? Let me ask you... is that what this picture says to you?

Perhaps I'm sporting romantic (that's not a romantic person who's sporty by the way) but I reckon that in the end, talent will win. Spain are easily the best team and now they win everything. Rory choked massively at the Masters but proceeded to dominate the USPGA like no-one since Tiger had done. I'm no sports psychologist but it seems to me that if you are capable of winning, you most likely will.