ATP World Four Finals

Two years ago, in the first ATP World Tour Finals in London, Nikolay Davydenko won the tournament. The Russian was ranked 6th after a season where he made just 1 Grand Slam quarter final (French), and won only 1 title all year. No-one would claim that our bald Mr Consistent was the best player in the world that year but the truth was, everyone else was knackered. Del Potro, newly crowned US Open Champion, fought through to the final and then proceeded to put in one of the weariest performances of his career. With Nadal, Murray and Djokovic all eliminated in the groups, it was very much a damp squib of a season climax.


Then last year, the tournament exceeded all expectations, the big four filling the semi-final slots and Murray/Nadal producing one of the most epic 3 set matches in recent history. It also saw Roger Federer playing the sort of breathtaking tennis that he's capable of but only sporadically produces and inflicting upon Djokovic his last defeat before his marathon winning run, ended 6 months later at Roland Garros by the Swiss himself. 


So which way will this year go? The few months after the US Open are always strange, players missing tournaments and retirements/withdrawals aplenty. But after a run of tournaments that aren't prioritised by the top players, the O2 presents a crucial challenge to all 8 of the competitors this year.

Djokovic has unquestionably been the best player in the world this year, with a season virtually unmatched in history (that said, RF went 81-4 in '05 and 92-5 in '06, ND is currently 69-4). It is only fitting surely that he finishes the year off by sealing his second Tour Finals victory (won in '08). But he's been struggling with a shoulder injury and hasn't won anything since the US Open. He'd be a deserving winner but is that going to be enough?


Nadal has never won the Tour Finals and, given that he's one of the greatest players ever, he must claim it at some stage. His physical style batters his body and so he usually comes to the end of the season weary and not performing his best. In the final against Federer last year he was certainly affected by the length and intensity of the semi against Murray the day before. He's not played since Shanghai in early October so how he's playing or what kind of fitness he's got will be as hard to predict as the overall winner.


Murray will of course never win a Grand Slam, purely by virtue of the fact that he's British, so is this the biggest prize to target? He's never really threatened to win the whole thing, but knows he can beat any of the 7 and there's surely no better time to be in Djokovic's group. With the crowd behind him but less pressure than at Wimbledon, if he is fit, this may well be his year.


Federer has found some incredible form, claiming his first Paris Masters' title, and is unbeaten in 12 matches since the US Open. He's won this title 5 times and showed last year that he can produce even when he's been written off. How he'd love to show people yet again that he's as good as ever, and with the form behind him, you can't blame the bookies for making him favourite.


For Ferrer, Fish, Tsonga and Berdych, this title, especially against the other four competitors would undoubtably be the highlight of their careers thus far, but unless it's a 2009 repeat, I don't give them much chance.


Given that whatever I predict on this blog, it goes completing the opposite way, I won't jinx anyone. I just hope it's more like last year than the year before.

Nadal asks no semi - Ferrer gives no semi

What an anticlimactic way for the Nadal dream to end. I appreciate the sentiment behind "give Ferrer his due" and "it's not easy to stay focussed in a situation like that" but in reality it was a bit like taking candy from a stubborn baby - not without minor difficulties but essentially inevitable and resulting in success but with a somewhat hollow ring to it. Ferr play to David for not showing any mercy but it's not like we expected him to forfeit a set out of a sense of friendship and humanitarianism.
In my prediction of straight sets (cop out excuse - I didn't state clearly who to ;-)), I commented that Nadal is Nadal - truth is during this match he wasn't. 

Or maybe he was, but not the Nadal we like to think of (sheer power, determination and incredible skill with a racquet). Part of Federer's consistency in Slams is not only always making it to the QF and beyond, but the fact that he participates in them all and never retires from a match. Nadal's style means that he is very susceptible to injury and so is unlikely to a) ever have a consistently injury-free year or b) have as lengthy a career as Federer. There's no doubt Nadal is a champion but his chances of winning as many GS as Federer are harmed greatly by his Darren Anderton-esque injury-proneness.
So we are left with the following Semi Finals:
Federer vs Djokovic
Murray vs Ferrer
Murray trails the head-to-head 3-2 but leads 2-0 on hard courts. Hard to evaluate Ferrer after the Nadal match but I would expect Murray to take him, although it may not prove as straightforward as their clash at the 02 in November. I slightly underestimated the difficulty Dolgo would cause but I genuinely don't see David taking more than a set from the Scot. Murray in 4
Remarkably, this will be Djokovic and Federer's 5th Grand Slam semi-final match up. Their head-to-head makes for interesting reading.
Overall: Fed leads 13-6 (68% RF wins)
In Semis: Fed leads 6-4 (60% RF wins)
In Slams: Fed leads 4-2 (67% RF wins)
On Hard: Fed leads 12-5 (71% RF wins)
In other words, there's an incredible consistency in the percentage of times Roger beats Novak. But to make it really specific, their four Grand Slam semi meetings are split 2-2 (RF: US '09, US '08 - ND: US '10, AUS '08). Perhaps this can give Djoko some hope.
It's a tough one to call, it will no doubt mean a lot to Federer to show that he is still capable of winning slams but Novak has to believe that he has a great chance, not only to beat Federer but to go on to claim his second Grand Slam title. Their career win percentages are unexpectedly close, at 81% (RF) and 79% (ND). I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to 5 sets but this time I think Federer will have the edge.


* selected other career win percentages (with total GS wins), for information's sake:

Borg 83% - 11

Nadal 82% - 9

McEnroe 82% - 7

Lendl 82% - 8

Laver 79% - 11 (5 in Open Era)

Sampras 77% - 14
Agassi 76% - 8

Edberg 75% - 6
Murray 74% - 0