What Now for Tennis' Big Five?

It's hard to know what to do with yourself on the days after a weekend of sports like that. French Open finals, Champions League final, Women's World Cup, NBA finals, Ireland - England friendly, Canadian Grand Prix, Gemili running sub 10 seconds and the Epsom Derby, as well as the ongoing FIFA and Salazar/Farah controversies. You get to the Monday and the only consolation is that we don't have to endure any more England friendlies until November. 

With so much sport, we might have hoped for a few upsets to keep us on the edge of our seats but instead of a few little ones, we got just one big hit. Sunday's blistering performance from Stan Wawrinka has shaken up the tennis hierarchy. He has of course shown his capability before but this was something new. Beating an injured Nadal on hardcourt is nothing compared to toppling Djokovic on a 28 game unbeaten run in a Slam final. So where does it leave the big 5 of the men's game?

Djokovic - unquestionably the dominant player of the tennis world and clearly ahead of anyone else. His consistency and quality will see him atop the rankings for a long time yet and most likely favourite for every major for the next two years. Still some mental frailties when things are against him but he's so good that it rarely matters in the end. Currently on 8 Slams, it's hard to see him getting to Federer's mark of 17, especially as he's so far only ever once (2011) won more than one in a season.

Federer - appears to be in a strange place now in his career. Retains the class and style of his younger years but lacks the consistency to genuinely threaten at the business end of slams. Losses to the likes of Seppi, Cilic, Gulbis, Robredo and Stakhovsky in the last 2 years suggest that he is likely to have to settle for 17 Slams. With nothing more to prove or achieve, but still world number 2 for now and still capable of beating anyone, he does genuinely appear to just enjoy being on the tour and playing tennis. Of course he'd love to win another big one but he's content enough making a mockery of those who say he should retire just because he's no longer the best.

Murray - what could prove to be a very significant spring for Murray, with a breakout claycourt season. Winning two clay titles, beating Nadal in Madrid and looking thoroughly comfortable on the dirt. In significant tournaments (Slams/1000 series) this year he has only lost to Djokovic. Likely to overtake Federer for No 2 in the world later in the summer and almost a certainty to add to his 2 Grand Slams at some point in the next year or so. Definitely worth a flutter on him to build on a high level of confidence with a second Wimbledon title in a month's time. Probably won't have quite enough to overhaul Djokovic to top the rankings but he may well run him close soon enough. 

Wawrinka - simply one of the best individual performances I've ever seen. Devastating striking of the ball on such a regular basis. We've seen success from the likes of Del Potro and Soderling in the past just thumping it as hard as possible but nothing like what Stan produced. He will continue to be a threat, particularly at Slams where he turns it up a notch but such high risk tennis will never lead to a very top ranking. 

Nadal - ah Rafa, what are we going to do with you? One of the most physical, powerful and dominant players in history is something of a shell of his former self. So often throughout his career he has been held back by injuries and at some point it might need to be considered that he's not going to recover fully. Few players define competitiveness as much as Nadal but does he have it in him to beat Djokovic and Murray, especially from a current ranking of 10th? I hope so, but I fear not. 

A Chance for Someone New?

With the US Open starting today, there has to be a chance of an outsider taking a debut Grand Slam title for the second time this year. None of the usual suspects are on top form and some of the next generation such as Raonic and Dimitrov are starting to turn potential into ability. Both reached maiden Slam semi finals at Wimbledon and in the near future that may well become victories. Flushing Meadows also has a tendency to be a productive tournament for players who only win one or two in their career. Rafter, Safin, Hewitt, Roddick, Del Potro and Murray all won their first major in New York and none have managed more than 2 in total.

Perhaps it's because it's later in the season and so there can be fitness issues affecting the field. The fatigue element may well have played a part in Federer failing to win since the last of his 5 consecutive titles in 2008, aged 27. He has won each of the other Slams since he last triumphed in New York, but not even reached the final here. The Swiss star's dominance coming to an end has brought about a season of the title changing hands each year. The last 6 years have produced 5 different winners (only Nadal x2) and no-one has defended their title from the previous year. That trend will continue again with this edition with Nadal's withdrawal due to injury.

Nadal's absence means that since his Grand Slam debut aged 17 at 2003 Wimbledon, he has been missed 7 majors, including one in each of the last 3 years. To compare, Federer's debut was at Roland Garros 1999, also aged 17. Since then he has never been absent, missing out only 1999 US Open main draw by losing in qualifying. Tomorrow he will appear in his 60th consecutive Grand Slam. Nadal will not overhaul Federer's record of GS titles, because his absence (and injury) record limits how many he has the chance to win. Rafa has actually only won 1 Slam outside of Roland Garros in the last 4 years and it's pretty unlikely he'll still be at the top of his game when he's 32.

Normally you'd think that Nadal's absence would mean the title is pretty much a guarantee for Murray or Djokovic. As it happens, both have been on a fairly feeble run of form, the Scot losing in the QFs of his last 3 tournaments, the Serb in the last 16 of his last 2. Of course they will rise to the big occasion but in the significantly tougher side of the draw, (Djokovic, Wawrinka, Tsonga, Murray, Raonic, Isner), it will take a mighty turn of form for either of them to be holding the trophy aloft in a fortnight. Federer has shown at Wimbledon that he is still in the hunt for the majors and with a relatively weak route to the final (Karlovic, Fognini, Dimitrov, Ferrer), he may well put the American drought behind him. That being said, his performance the last two years doesn't fill you with confidence if you're a Fed fan (2013 Last 16 loss to Robredo, 2012 QF loss to Berdych). For once, none of the major players look like safe bets.

Hence why it might just be the time for a breakthrough from someone new...

The Final Flourish to a Fascinating Fortnight

I think we can agree that it's been an unusual Wimbledon fortnight. After defeating 2011 champion Petra Kvitova, Kirsten Flipkens described getting through to the semi finals as "ridiculous", and really that's not a bad word to summarise the whole Championships to date. Obviously the men's finalists are as the seedings predicted, but everything up to then has kept us entertained and thoroughly surprised.

Early defeats for Federer, Nadal, Serena and Sharapova, alongside withdrawals from the likes of Tsonga and Azarenka meant that we knew come the later stages we were going to have some unfamiliar names (especially to those fans who forget that tennis happens outside of a month in the English summer). Marion Bartoli became the first woman to win the title without facing a top 10 seed, and didn't play anyone ranked higher than herself, despite only being seeded 15th.

Not since 2002 have so many of the big names been eliminated early in the men's draw, and yet it is the top 2 that have made it through. As entertaining as it is to have upsets and underdogs, it's always best to have two of the very best facing off in the Championship match. There's no denying that the final of Roland Garros was something of an anticlimax, especially after the standard of the Rafa-Novak semi. 

Now of course it is unlikely Djokovic - Murray will quite match the drama and excitement of the DelPo semi but hopefully it will be its equal in terms of standard. Undoubtedly it will be a very different type of contest, both Murray and Djokovic's games are built on astonishing return of serve and relentless defensive abilities, movement around the court and staying in a rally. It will be take a lot of adjustment for them both, having had semis against ultra-attacking, go for a winner every shot Janowicz and Del Potro respectively. Having not faced a genuinely top quality player might have made Murray's route to the final easier but perhaps a clash with Nadal/Federer/Tsonga might have helped prepare him. In that sense I don't think it was the worst thing to be pushed by Verdasco and Janowicz, even if neither is in Djokovic's league.

Only time will tell the effect of the previous 6 matches on both men. In truth, there has been so much said, predictions made and analysis presented, all we can do now is watch and enjoy...


By the way, here is an update on the table I posted before the tournament began - whatever happens Federer will be ranked 5th and Djokovic will remain an absolute mile clear:

	R1 (10)	R2 (45)	R3 (90)	R4 (180)	QF (360)	SF (720)	F (1200)	W (2000)
Djokovic	11840	11875	11920	12010	12190	11830	12310	13110
Murray	7370	7405	7450	7540	7720	8080	8560	9360
Federer	5750	5785	5830	5920	6100	6460	6940	7740
Ferrer	6870	6905	6950	7040	7220	7580	8060	8860
Nadal	6860	6895	6940	7030	7210	7570	8050	8850

A Genuine Four Horse Race?

With the start of Wimbledon just days away, it seems only right to take a minute to look ahead to what could be yet another fascinating Grand Slam tournament. 
It is not often that all of the big four can be considered to have a genuine chance of winning. Djokovic could win anything, Nadal is the world's form player, Murray comes off the back of a victory at Queen's and carries incredible home support while reigning champion Federer can simply never be written off on grass. I'm sure there will be suggestions of an outsider having a chance, someone like Tsonga, Berdych or Del Potro but the reality is that needing to be beat 2 or 3 of the top ten over 5 sets will be too much for anyone else. I believe we have a genuine four horse race.

A few years ago the men's tennis world was utterly dominated by Federer and Nadal, as the great rivals won 24 of the 28 majors from '04 to '10. Only with Djokovic's sudden and meteoric rise to prominence in 2011 was the stranglehold broken. Since then, the spoils have been somewhat more shared, in such a way that the four Slams are currently held by four different men, for the first time since 2003. Any of the four could quite possibly be holding the golden trophy aloft in a fortnight's time, but what is almost certain is that there will be some epic clashes in there. Nadal being ranked 5th may or may not have much of an effect as there are inevitably going to be multiple match ups of the top men however the draw throws them together. The last time there was a straight sets final between 2 of the 4 was the 2011 Aussie Open, and if you take Murray's streak of final defeats out of the equation, it's the 2008 French Open.

Obviously there's no telling when a Lukas Rosol might come along again and keep us all on our toes, but I for one hope that we'll be seeing the four of them battling it out in two weeks' time. 

For the geekier among you I've quickly worked out what ranking points they'll all be on at the end of the tournament depending on how far they make it:

	R1 (10)	R2 (45)	R3 (90)	R4 (180)	QF (360)	SF (720)	F (1200)	W (2000)
Djokovic	11840	11875	11920	12010	12190	11830	12310	13110
Murray	7370	7405	7450	7540	7720	8080	8560	9360
Federer	5750	5785	5830	5920	6100	6460	6940	7740
Ferrer	6870	6905	6950	7040	7220	7580	8060	8860
Nadal	6860	6895	6940	7030	7210	7570	8050	8850

(current points, based on last year's performance is in bold)

And if you really like stats, here are their respective winning records, both for 2013 to date and all time at Wimbledon:

Djokovic 2013: 33-5 (86.8%) / Wimbledon all time: 32-7 (82%)
Murray 2013: 27-5 (84.4) / Wimbledon all time: 30-7 (81.1%)
Federer 2013: 26-7 (78.8%) / Wimbledon all time: 66-7 (90.4%)
Nadal 2013: 43-2 (95.6%) / Wimbledon all time: 36-6 (85.7%)

Relevance to Sunday 7th July = 0%

Second Successive Scottish Slam?

Just over 4 months ago, Andy Murray was heading to New York believing that it was his time. He'd genuinely competed in a slam final for the first time at Wimbledon, and had then conquered the two best players in the world to take Olympic Gold. Back on hard courts, there was a real sense that if he could avoid any early slip-ups, this could be the one. 

He dispatched Bogomolov Jr and Dodig with minimal fuss before seeing off Lopez (who he's played in 3 of the last 5 GS) in the 3rd round. The potentially dangerous Raonic proved not to be so and a slow start against Cilic couldn't prevent him reaching a seemingly inevitable semi-final. The shock came in that he would be playing Berdych, who had dumped out a decidedly off-form Federer in the other quarter. The Czech provided limited opposition, crumbling away and so Murray had shot number 5 at a major title. Djokovic had fought past Wawrinka, Del Potro and Ferrer and entered as favourite. But the Scot was an entirely different man to any finals before. Even when the Serb champion battled back, Murray held his nerve to take the crown. 
 
So, heading into a new season, what odds on him holding aloft another new bit of silverware? Well, most bookies say 9/4 or thereabouts, but the point is that he most definitely in with a shout. Obviously Novak will be favourite again, but a loss to Tomic in the Hopman Cup suggests he's far from invincible. There's no knowing where Federer is at, and of course the likes of JMDP, Tsonga, Ferrer and Berdych will be around, but the stage is set for a second successive Scottish Slam. 

On a side note, Nadal's ongoing injury trouble highlights again the physical demands on top level tennis players. Robin Soderling is now "inactive" on the ATP website because he's been out of the game for so long with utterly incapacitating glandular fever and Mardy Fish's heart issues are similarly leaving him unable to compete for huge periods of times.

And now Rafa appears to be heading in the same direction. There was once a day when Nadal would have snorted in derision at a virus, but such is his level of strength and fitness these days, it caused him to withdraw with more than 2 weeks before the start of the tournament. More than just the sniffles going on there. We can only hope that the soon-to-be-world-number-5 (or lower) does still actually have a knee. There are some whispers that he may never return to the court and more than a few that he'll never again be the real ruthless Rafa.

A different Andy Murray?

With the US Open less than a fortnight away, the question has to be whether claiming Olympic Gold is going to prove to be a turning point in the career of Andy Murray. No number of articles, blog posts or interviews could possibly enhance how aware we all are of his 'nearly man' status.

To date, twenty-seven grand slams have produced four major finals, which in turn have yielded just one set won. No-one can question his ability, speed around the court, outstanding returning and seemingly relentless defensive abilities. He has vastly improved his second serve and ability to attack rather than just waiting for opponents' mistakes, but most of all, he is mentally stronger. Only time and results will be a true measure but claiming his first genuinely significant title will surely have taught Murray like nothing else that he really is good enough to beat the best.

Only once before (2010 Toronto Masters) had he beaten two of the top 3 in consecutive matches. On six occasions he beat one before losing to the next (normally in the final). But at the Olympics, he beat both Djokovic and Federer. Of course neither were on the top of their game, Novak seeming out of sorts and almost demotivated and Roger simply shattered, but that effect was greatly exacerbated by Murray's sheer aggression and dominance all over the court.

There was something different about him, determined and proud, the crowd fully unified behind him, exuding confidence. He was by quite some distance the best player at the tournament, by a long way, and it never seemed even remotely possible that he could lose. Perhaps being part of something bigger, participating as a member of Team GB, perhaps something else, but irrespective of the reason, this was a different Andy Murray.

Heading to Flushing Meadows, he must be right up there with Djokovic and Federer as a one of, if not the clear favourite. Nadal's withdrawal doesn't change the fact that Murray will have to beat them both (upsets aside), but we now know he can and very possibly, the Scot knows it now as well. 

What I really do hope for is a high quality final. There are few better sights in tennis than a Grand Slam final, where both players are completely at the top of their games. So often it seems as though one player doesn't quite compete as we know they can, and it ends up as less of a contest than it has the potential for. The Wimbledon final was a perfect example of a high-class clash between the two best players in the tournament.

The variety and accuracy with which Federer distributed the ball around the court was utterly remarkable, and frankly without compare. Murray played as well as he could, finding a great balance with his solid defence providing an excellent foundation from which to attack. Maybe in a few weeks time we will be able to say that both played to their maximum but that Murray came out on top at last.

Wimbledon 2012: Those Four Again?

Here we find ourselves again, twelve Novak & Nadal dominated months later. As the annual fortnight of tennis-mania sweeps the country and particularly the south-west corner of its capital, not much has changed.

Will we be seeing this again soon?

Naturally, there have been sporting shocks: England's ODI team is performing as well as its Test team, England's football team are (at the time of writing at least) still residing in Eastern Europe and the southern hemisphere teams are only narrowly beating the best of Europe's rugby giants (the shock being that it's not more convincing of course).

But in the strawberries and Pimms world of SW19, there's very little different from where we were 12 months ago, with the same old four leading the way. Assuming there are no injuries by the time the first serve is struck, Novak starts top seed and favourite, with Nadal a close second, Federer slightly further back, Murray a bit off the pace in 4, and then a significant jump to the third row of the grid with Tsonga and Berdych (sorry Ferrer, you just ain't cut out for the lawns), and any other contender realistically just aiming for the Quarters.

Djokovic has well and truly demonstrated that the sensational run which kicked off 2011 was no freak occurrence. Although he's not maintained quite the same utterly indestructible form this year, he has proven again and again that he is the best there is at the moment. Make no mistake, Rafa is the unquestionable King of Clay but all round consistency and dominance state that the Serb deserves the Number 1 ranking he claimed in reaching the Wimbledon final last year.

And yet, because he's been defending so many ranking points, there is the remarkably a three way showdown for the number 1 spot. Refer to the ATP article for more detailed permutations, but unless Novak gets to the final he's in serious danger of relinquishing the ranking he's fought so hard to gain.

Federer's consistency in the 1000 series tournaments since August, alongside victory in the World Tour Finals means that matching Nadal's performance will see him overtake his Spanish rival, and winning the title could see him return to the top of the tree for the first time since June 2010. As well as being an incredible achievement in itself, it would also ensure that he breaks Sampras' record for number of weeks as the (officially ranked) best player in the world. Sadly perhaps, the tame way he subsided to Djokovic in Paris, as well as his surprising defeat to Haas in Halle last week, means that victory at his beloved Wimbledon just seems beyond him. Let's not forget he's not won here with Nadal present since 2007 (also the last time he defeated Rafa in a Slam).

It wouldn't be a pre-Wimbledon blog by a Brit without a mention of Murray. Much like the England team in the lead up to Euro 2012, he goes in with less expectation than many years before, with disappointing performances at Roland Garros, Queens and even the exhibition matches at Boodles. It's been a lean year thus far, and he has slipped closer to number 5 than number 3, and the fear must already be developing that he will be remembered as a perennial number 4, sadly not too dissimilar to Tim "semi-final" Henman.

But, he maintains the record of always having matched or bettered his performance at Wimbledon each year and knows he can beat any of the top 3 on any given day. The question remains whether the 1st of July will be that Any Given Sunday.