Who's Daring to Dream?

Among the many things I love about the World Cup is the huge variety of opinions, articles, talking points, disagreements and perspectives it provokes. Go on any decent website and there are as many different articles as you could hope to read, discussing every possible aspect of the tournament. You can read about the teams, players, previous tournaments, the infrastructure, the impact on the hosts, impact on previous hosts, basically anything.

But without doubt the best thing (possibly including the matches, that remains to be seen) is the debate (yes I mean arguments). Who's in your All-time XI, who's in your fantasy team, who will win the Golden Boot, do Messi/Ronaldo need to win to be considered among the best players ever, who should start for England and how far will we get? There is virtually nothing on which you'll find yourself in complete agreement with someone else. If you do, the only thing I can recommend is you debate things a bit more.

Of all the contentious issues, there is one that most clearly identifies the optimists, pessimists, realists and idiots. How will England do? 
A couple of years ago I wrote a post about England's chances going into Euro 2012. Before the tournament, there was a genuine sense of realism about the England football team and our chances in such a way that there was no huge feeling of devastation when Diamanti tucked home the decisive penalty. Winning the group failed to inspire any genuine hope and rightly so given the insipid performance produced against the Italians.

So with it all kicking off on Thursday evening, how are we feeling this time around? There's a certain satisfying symmetry with England starting where they left off in the Euros, aiming to avenge that defeat and put right the dour and lacklustre style of play from 2 years ago. Lots has been made of the exciting young talents of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Sterling, Lallana and Barkley but whether they're quite enough to inspire blind optimism in a naturally wary nation remains to be seen. Surely it will be the same old story. Surely warm up draws against the might of Ecuador and Honduras tell us all we need to know. Surely...

I can't help myself, I'm going to put it out there that by 1am on Sunday morning, there'll be the faintest of glints in the eye of even the most cynical of England fans. 

A World Cup fight at Close Quarters

No more group matches, no more working out point difference, bonus points and qualification permutations. We are at the do or die stage. This World Cup has finally reached a genuinely interesting and difficult to call round of exciting Quarter Final matches. 


Bar the NZ-Arg match, which is unlikely to have the edge of our seats and the ends of our nails worn down, there are 3 truly close matches ahead. These are the top 8 IRB ranked teams in the world and as per last week's rankings they were paired as 2 vs 3 (SA-Aus); 4 vs 5 (Eng-Fra) and 6 vs 7 (Ire-Wal). France's defeat to Tonga has since seen them drop to 8th but make no mistake, they aren't just making up les nombres...


England - France
As amusing as it would be to continue a very thinly disguised attempt at English sporting arrogance (and endeavour to evoke a further remarkable barrage of abuse from those whose understanding of sarcasm and irony is about as advanced as Jonny Wilkinson's involvement in twitter), there's simply no way England can confidently assume their semi-final place is secure. The "convincing" Six Nations win was only 9-9 at half-time and a missed Yachvili penalty just before the break could have made for a very different result. 
England are going with Flood and Wilkinson, the fairly blunt instrument that has been Tindall dropped ruled out with an horrific dead leg, an injury so devastating and crippling that it was kept completely under wraps until it happened to be that Johnson had to reveal that he didn't want our royal centre to play. Extra kicking options, wingers with 9 tries in 5 matches between them and a self-belief that we're better than our Gallic rivals in disarray makes England strong favourites.
As much as I might try to suppress my patriotism, it seems to be winning out over the English sporting cynicism, so I'm going to go for a 21-13 victory pour les Blancs.


Ireland - Wales
The Celtic clash has been well covered by Ben Dirs so I won't labour to expand upon his analysis but I can't help feeling it is going to be worth the early morning start. These two expansive, attractive rugby-playing nations are 1-1 in World Cup head-to-head but 63-46 to Wales all-time and Ireland have never made it beyond the quarter final stage. But after a famous victory over the Wallabies in the pool, and a convincing dismantling of a potential banana skin in Italy, the Irish must be brimming with confidence. Wales have had a couple of close shaves, one nearly sneaking a win against the world champions, one narrowly escaping going down to the less-than-mighty Samoa. A swansong for greats like O'Driscoll, O'Gara and Williams will only add to the drama.
The fact that I have them in my work sweepstake has nothing at all to do with the fact that I believe Ireland will come through for a 24-17 win.

Australia - South Africa
An absolutely mouth-watering clash between 2 of the 3 teams to have ever defeated the All Blacks in the RWC. They share a 1-1 world cup record and have both won the tournament a joint record 2 times. Remarkably, Australia have never been ranked 1 in the world and the reigning Tri-Nations champions have a losing 26-40 overall record against the Springboks. That said, they beat them in both of the Tri-Nations clashes and go into the match marginal favourites, despite the form of new record South African try scorer Bryan Habana. 
Not too sure why, but I've just got an inkling that it could be the Springboks' day and I'll go for a closely fought 18-14 win for the Africans.


New Zealand - Argentina

By no means a guarantee without the talismanic Dan Carter but the dominant All Blacks who, dismissive of the pressure on them, have looked thoroughly solid thus far, start as overwhelming favourites against a team they've not lost to in 13 matches. Argentina will no doubt do what they do well, and keep the tide at bay for periods but there'll be no stopping New Zealand making their 6th semi final in 7 world cups.
No second consecutive semi for the Pumas unfortunately, going down 37-9 I reckon.

Halfway there but no closer to knowing...

It's been something of a bitty and disrupted first week with rain delays, injuries and matches spanning two days but it's been as fascinating as ever and the excitement and anticipation of a thrilling climax is building. 


Roddick was the first major name to fall (I hope you took my advice and didn't have a wager on him, even at 33/1), probably marking the end of any attempts to really compete here. Another Masters 1000 or 2 is about all A-Rod can hope for I fear as his career winds down somewhat.

So the top 4 are all still with us, Murray safely into R4, for a replay of 2008's epic encounter. As seems customary with our fiery Scot at Slams, some early troubles which should lead to real confidence and form in the latter stages. At Roland Garros he had such a tussle with Troicki and coming through it gave him good momentum and belief to put away Chela and take on Nadal. Dropping sets against Gimeno-Traver and Ljubicic may have a similar effect and he'll need it as it looks like Gasquet - Monfils - Nadal could be his next 3 matches.


Nadal has looked untroubled generally, although has given up a few breaks and looked shaky at points. He didn't exactly start the French in blistering form but we all know what happened there. For some reason William Hill have dropped him to 9/4 compared to 2/1 before the tournament started but his progress has been pretty smooth so far. Playing Simon/JMDP then most likely Berdych before Murray and Federer/Djokovic certainly isn't an easy route but this is Nadal we're talking about

Federer has looked seriously good so far, smashing more than 80 winners in his two straight set victories so far. William Hill now have him as favourite, at 2/1, despite the fact that his section of the draw is the only one where all 4 seeds are still in (Almagro, Youzhny, Nalbandian). There's also the fact that Kukushkin and Mannarino are pretty awful. A renewal of the old rivalry between him and Nalbo could be interesting


Djokovic has looked devastating so far and I can't see Baghdatis causing him too much trouble. Everything's right about his game at the moment and he seems to have dealt with the end of his winning run with a maturity that is becoming increasingly characteristic of the current World Number 2. His William Hill odds have remarkably lengthened to 3/1 (11/4 before tournament) and now might be a good time to have a stab on him.* 


So, as the title suggests, we're no nearer knowing who is going to be top dog at the end of it all. That's goes for who will win Wimbledon as well as who will be World Number 1. This table shows how the rankings will look of the top 3 depending on results: 

	R3	R4	QF	SF	F	WIN
Nadal	10160	10250	10430	10790	11270	12070
Djokovic	11375	11465	11645	12005	12485	13285
Federer	8960	9050	9230	9590	10070	10870

Djokovic just needs to make the final to be No. 1, but Federer could also overtake Nadal is the Spaniard falls before the final. Interesting times ahead...


A quick review of my predictions from the last blog entry... (with my own marking)

• Nadal lost 8 games, not 4-6. 5/10
• I suggested Murray would be taken to a tie-break but he went one "better" and lost a set 4/10
• Federer hit a ridiculous 53 winners (38 in second round) 9/10
• Djokovic cruised through straight sets 0/10
• Nishikori gave Hewitt a decent run at times but the 5 setter was one round out, as Hewitt Soderling went the distance. 6/10
• 5 seeds went out in the first round, although Dolgo and Tipsy were in there. 4/10

Not the best performance then.


To make amends, here are some more...

• There will be at least 6 breaks of serve in Gasquet - Murray
• There will be at least 80 UFE in Tsonga-Gonzo
• Djokovic will beat Marcos and then Lu/Llodra in straight sets
• Fish-Berdych (assuming they both make it through) will be very close - couple of tie breaks, at least 4 sets, that sort of thing
• Nadal will lose a set to DelPo/Simon

Now it's actually started for the day, I think I'll watch some rather than just talking about it...




*In fact, if you bet equally on Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, say £100 on each, you won't lose money if any of the three win (Fed win and you'd be even, Nadal you'd be up £25, Djokovic win you'd be up £100)

Guns prepared, draw complete, ready to fire...

The Wild (South) West London showdown commences on Monday.

Murray's guns are ready for a show...

A deathly silence descends as the crowds' attention fixes on the contest to come. Saloons empty and tumbleweed hurries its way along the soon-to-be crammed streets. Competitors' guns are loaded (see pic). The preparations are complete and we've even had the draw. All that is left is for our shooters to fire. 

First, the preparations... Nadal had a truncated week at Queens where he may have started to adjust to grass but fatigue meant he didn't get a full run out. Djokovic had one exhibition match in leafy Bucks where he crushed Gilles Simon in 47 minutes. Federer has kept a low profile, recovering from a minor groin strain (a friend saw him getting some treatment in the Wimbledon physio room) and hitting the practice courts. Interestingly enough, in '07, '09 and '11 Federer withdrew from Halle due to fatigue - he won Wimbledon in '07 and '09. The only year he's failed to win Halle, since '02, was last year, when he had his worst Wimbledon performance since his first round loss to Mario Ancic, also in '02. Murray has put in the hours, with his Queens success as well as a match, albeit cut short by rain, against Troicki at the Boodles.
All the supporting players have been running through their lines as well, at Halle, Queens and The Boodles. We're ready to go


Next, the draw. Some interesting possible clashes lie ahead, before we even think of the latter stages, here are some of the picks:


3rd round: Cilic - Murray
3rd round: Wawrinka - Gasquet
3rd round: Federer - Nalbandian
2nd round: Soderling - Hewitt
1st round: Stepanek - Verdasco
1st round: Dolgopolov - Gonzalez
1st round: Baghdatis - Blake


But who does the draw favour? Difficult to say until things unfold but a bit of statistical speculation is always entertaining...
Taking the draw in 8 sections, each containing 4 seeds, we can look at the potential difficulty of reaching the quarters for our main quartet by looking at the credentials of the other 3 seeds in the section (average seeding, how many Masters series, Slams and total titles they've won)

• Nadal (1st section): 31 Raonic, 24 Del Potro, 15 Simon = 23.33 ave seeding, 0 Masters series titles, 1 Grand Slam (JMDP), 18 total titles
• Murray (3rd section): 27 Cilic, 17 Gasquet, 14 Wawrinka = 19.33 ave seeding, 0 Masters series titles, 0 Grand Slam, 14 total titles
• Federer (6th section): 16 Almagro, 18 Youzhny, 28 Nalbandian = 20.66 ave seeding, 2 Masters series titles (both Nalbo), 0 Grand Slam, 28 total titles
• Djokovic (8th section): 13 Troicki, 19 Llodra, 32 Baghdatis = 21.33 ave seeding, 0 Masters series titles, 0 Grand Slam, 10 total titles

If the success of the draw is all about reactions, so is the returning of serve. Which would suggest that Djokovic is the man. He breaks 41% of the games he receives (AM 39%, RN 39%, RF 27%), converts 48% of break points (RN 47%, AM 46%, RF 38%) and wins 59% of points on his opponent's second serve (RN also 59%, AM 57%, RF 51%). Murray leads % points won on opponent's first serve with 38% - ND and RN have 36%, RF back on 34%. 
But the best defence is unlikely to win you a shootout and so it is at Wimbledon. On the grass, just staying in the rally only gets you so far. You need to attack and put away the winners. Or so you would think.... 
Numerous people have suggested that court speed at SW19 is no faster than at 75016 (Roland Garros 'code postal') and a quick look at the stats from the top 3's matches against Berdych last year tell quite a story...


Quarter Finals: Federer - 44 winners, 18 unforced errors. 4 set loss
Semi Finals: Djokovic - 25 winners, 22 unforced errors. 3 set loss
Final: Nadal - 29 winners, 21 unforced errors. 3 set victory


Maybe it's not all about the winners after all. Whereas looking at the winners they each conceded (RN only 27, ND 34, RF 51) indicates that the defensive skills could be the ones that make a difference. 


Prediction time:
Nadal in 3, losing 4-6 games
Murray in 3, but taken to a tie-break in one set
Federer in 3, with at least 30 winners
Djokovic in 4, outrageous enough prediction to not have to give further detail
Nishikori - Hewitt will go to 5 sets
2 or 3 seeds will fall (from Baghdatis, Llodra (come on Ward!), Almagro, Dolgopolov and Tipsarevic)

No Major upsets

3 days in and a few hairy moments but, as with most Majors, no major upsets. Gilles Simon gave Federer a great game in one of the matches of the tournament so far - even more than my predicted "maybe take a set". Real signs that he can get his way back up to the top 10 before too long.


Plenty of competition for the match of the tournament though, Nalbo-Hewitt, Verdasco-Tipsarevic, Fish-Hanescu, Petzschner-Tsonga and Monfils-De Bakker all producing epic 5 setters but each time the higher rank coming through in the end. So why is that? 


A quick bit of maths reveals a telling stat regarding unforced errors (UFE). In the 6 matches mentioned (GS-RF, DN-LH, FV-JT, MF-VH, PP-JWT & GM-TDB), the average % of UFE made by the lower seed for the whole match was 48.5%. However the average % of UFE made by the lower seed in the 5th set only jumps up to 59.7%
Most pundits will tell you that UFE come down to two things, tiredness and concentration. There's no reason for any player to be less fit than his opponent (apart from if you're playing Monfils cos that man's a running machine) - but concentration is another matter. Not that I'm a world-class tennis pro to speak from experience but maintaining your concentration for 3+ hours is almost impossible. No wonder the ATP website attributes Federer's success to his experience. Players like Tipsy and Hanescu are always around in tournaments and can give a good show of themselves, but on the big stage they seem to lack the mental game to see it through. 
That's what sets Rafa, Roger and Novak apart, even from Robin/Andy/Tomas etc., they are insanely consistent in the Grand Slams. 


No doubt Rafa will crash out to Sweeting tonight. 


So my predictions from the previous post - mixed I think is a good summary. 


Simon certainly earned his label as "dangerous", only I underestimated quite how dangerous


Davydenko crashed out first round - hardly living up to my prediction of a QF slot


We'll have to see tonight about JMDP and Tomic, although I feel like the latter has done well by me getting past 44th ranked Jeremy Chardy.


As for the overall prediction, I'm sticking with Federer, it's good for him to have had a battle early on and the draw has opened up for him even more than before - the earliest he could meet another seed is the QF. Nadal certainly looked ominous but I'm not sure there was enough actual tennis to make a proper evaluation. We'll see how it looks after another round of matches...

Australian Open/Closed?

So the Australian Open starts this weekend and other than the usual Murray-mania, it's basically down to Federer Nadal. Again. If it was just Man U and Chelsea winning the Premiership every year, people would call it boring. Oh wait. Never mind.

Nadal is streaks ahead but Federer's been showing good signs - can he prove himself once again? I doubt he cares, but the number of times he's apparently finally settled the debate that he is the greatest of all time must be close to the number of aces in a Roddick-Karlovic 5 setter. Roland Garros '09 (career GS), Wimbledon '09 (most GS wins), regaining yr end No 1. ranking (end of '09), London O2 '10 (World Tour Finals).

But if you think of the great RN-RF clashes, it's Rafa that comes out on top. Wimbledon '07 was epic, but Rafa was only 21 and Roger was in his prime. When they've both been at the top of their games, Wimbledon '08 and Australia '09 it's been the Spaniard to prevail, not to mention the seemingly infinite number of RG finals he's beaten Federer in. Of course you cannot take away from Federer winning the French (09), then Wimbledon (09) and then the Aus but he didn't have to play Nadal at any of them (thanks to Soderling/injury, injury and Murray/injury respectively).

Federer's defending 2000 ranking points (from a total of 9245) whereas Nadal is only defending 360 (from a total of 12,390) so even if Fed does win, Rafa's likely to extend his lead in the rankings. Murray suffers a similar predicament in trying to win 4th back from Soderling, defending 1200 points to Soderling's 10. This won't be helped by the fact that Murray has hardly had any competitive tennis and Soderling's just won in Australia.

So any predictions? First of all, some dangerous players in the draw, undervalued in ranking for various reasons. Watch out for (in rough order of dangerousness):


Gilles Simon - Not sure Federer will be too happy to see Gilles as a potential R2 opponent, the Frenchman leads the head-to-head 2-0 and has been as high as 6 in the world, not to mention winning in Sydney this week. Prediction: he'll give Roger a good game, maybe take a set but not enough for the win - out in R2
Nikolay Davydenko - may seem silly to call the 23rd seed a threat but he's a lot better than 23 and can take anyone on his day (e.g. Nadal in Qatar last week) - could be a very interesting R4 vs Berdych. Prediction: out to Djokovic in QF
Juan Martin Del Potro - could take on Murray in 4th round, Grand Slam winner. Bit of a whack it hard as I can merchant but when he's in form, it works big time (US Open '09). Dangerous but lack of game time means he shouldn't pose Murray too much of a threat, if he gets that far. Prediction: out to Baghdatis in R2
Bernard Tomic - an 18 year old ranked at 209 currently (with a career high 208) may not strike fear in Nadal's heart but if Tomic can get past Chardy and Lopez, I think he could worry Rafa a touch. He gave Cilic a real scare last year and put out Starace (who was ranked 73) at only 16 years old. The crowd will be behind him and he may well make things uncomfortable for Rafa. If he gets to him. Prediction: (Disappointingly) Out to Lopez in R2


Who's actually going to win the thing? Ladbrokes have it dead even between Nadal and Federer, and I can't fault them - I'll go for Roger cos he's got a slightly easier route through. We'll see