The Final Flourish to a Fascinating Fortnight

I think we can agree that it's been an unusual Wimbledon fortnight. After defeating 2011 champion Petra Kvitova, Kirsten Flipkens described getting through to the semi finals as "ridiculous", and really that's not a bad word to summarise the whole Championships to date. Obviously the men's finalists are as the seedings predicted, but everything up to then has kept us entertained and thoroughly surprised.

Early defeats for Federer, Nadal, Serena and Sharapova, alongside withdrawals from the likes of Tsonga and Azarenka meant that we knew come the later stages we were going to have some unfamiliar names (especially to those fans who forget that tennis happens outside of a month in the English summer). Marion Bartoli became the first woman to win the title without facing a top 10 seed, and didn't play anyone ranked higher than herself, despite only being seeded 15th.

Not since 2002 have so many of the big names been eliminated early in the men's draw, and yet it is the top 2 that have made it through. As entertaining as it is to have upsets and underdogs, it's always best to have two of the very best facing off in the Championship match. There's no denying that the final of Roland Garros was something of an anticlimax, especially after the standard of the Rafa-Novak semi. 

Now of course it is unlikely Djokovic - Murray will quite match the drama and excitement of the DelPo semi but hopefully it will be its equal in terms of standard. Undoubtedly it will be a very different type of contest, both Murray and Djokovic's games are built on astonishing return of serve and relentless defensive abilities, movement around the court and staying in a rally. It will be take a lot of adjustment for them both, having had semis against ultra-attacking, go for a winner every shot Janowicz and Del Potro respectively. Having not faced a genuinely top quality player might have made Murray's route to the final easier but perhaps a clash with Nadal/Federer/Tsonga might have helped prepare him. In that sense I don't think it was the worst thing to be pushed by Verdasco and Janowicz, even if neither is in Djokovic's league.

Only time will tell the effect of the previous 6 matches on both men. In truth, there has been so much said, predictions made and analysis presented, all we can do now is watch and enjoy...


By the way, here is an update on the table I posted before the tournament began - whatever happens Federer will be ranked 5th and Djokovic will remain an absolute mile clear:

	R1 (10)	R2 (45)	R3 (90)	R4 (180)	QF (360)	SF (720)	F (1200)	W (2000)
Djokovic	11840	11875	11920	12010	12190	11830	12310	13110
Murray	7370	7405	7450	7540	7720	8080	8560	9360
Federer	5750	5785	5830	5920	6100	6460	6940	7740
Ferrer	6870	6905	6950	7040	7220	7580	8060	8860
Nadal	6860	6895	6940	7030	7210	7570	8050	8850

A Genuine Four Horse Race?

With the start of Wimbledon just days away, it seems only right to take a minute to look ahead to what could be yet another fascinating Grand Slam tournament. 
It is not often that all of the big four can be considered to have a genuine chance of winning. Djokovic could win anything, Nadal is the world's form player, Murray comes off the back of a victory at Queen's and carries incredible home support while reigning champion Federer can simply never be written off on grass. I'm sure there will be suggestions of an outsider having a chance, someone like Tsonga, Berdych or Del Potro but the reality is that needing to be beat 2 or 3 of the top ten over 5 sets will be too much for anyone else. I believe we have a genuine four horse race.

A few years ago the men's tennis world was utterly dominated by Federer and Nadal, as the great rivals won 24 of the 28 majors from '04 to '10. Only with Djokovic's sudden and meteoric rise to prominence in 2011 was the stranglehold broken. Since then, the spoils have been somewhat more shared, in such a way that the four Slams are currently held by four different men, for the first time since 2003. Any of the four could quite possibly be holding the golden trophy aloft in a fortnight's time, but what is almost certain is that there will be some epic clashes in there. Nadal being ranked 5th may or may not have much of an effect as there are inevitably going to be multiple match ups of the top men however the draw throws them together. The last time there was a straight sets final between 2 of the 4 was the 2011 Aussie Open, and if you take Murray's streak of final defeats out of the equation, it's the 2008 French Open.

Obviously there's no telling when a Lukas Rosol might come along again and keep us all on our toes, but I for one hope that we'll be seeing the four of them battling it out in two weeks' time. 

For the geekier among you I've quickly worked out what ranking points they'll all be on at the end of the tournament depending on how far they make it:

	R1 (10)	R2 (45)	R3 (90)	R4 (180)	QF (360)	SF (720)	F (1200)	W (2000)
Djokovic	11840	11875	11920	12010	12190	11830	12310	13110
Murray	7370	7405	7450	7540	7720	8080	8560	9360
Federer	5750	5785	5830	5920	6100	6460	6940	7740
Ferrer	6870	6905	6950	7040	7220	7580	8060	8860
Nadal	6860	6895	6940	7030	7210	7570	8050	8850

(current points, based on last year's performance is in bold)

And if you really like stats, here are their respective winning records, both for 2013 to date and all time at Wimbledon:

Djokovic 2013: 33-5 (86.8%) / Wimbledon all time: 32-7 (82%)
Murray 2013: 27-5 (84.4) / Wimbledon all time: 30-7 (81.1%)
Federer 2013: 26-7 (78.8%) / Wimbledon all time: 66-7 (90.4%)
Nadal 2013: 43-2 (95.6%) / Wimbledon all time: 36-6 (85.7%)

Relevance to Sunday 7th July = 0%

Wimbledon 2012: Those Four Again?

Here we find ourselves again, twelve Novak & Nadal dominated months later. As the annual fortnight of tennis-mania sweeps the country and particularly the south-west corner of its capital, not much has changed.

Will we be seeing this again soon?

Naturally, there have been sporting shocks: England's ODI team is performing as well as its Test team, England's football team are (at the time of writing at least) still residing in Eastern Europe and the southern hemisphere teams are only narrowly beating the best of Europe's rugby giants (the shock being that it's not more convincing of course).

But in the strawberries and Pimms world of SW19, there's very little different from where we were 12 months ago, with the same old four leading the way. Assuming there are no injuries by the time the first serve is struck, Novak starts top seed and favourite, with Nadal a close second, Federer slightly further back, Murray a bit off the pace in 4, and then a significant jump to the third row of the grid with Tsonga and Berdych (sorry Ferrer, you just ain't cut out for the lawns), and any other contender realistically just aiming for the Quarters.

Djokovic has well and truly demonstrated that the sensational run which kicked off 2011 was no freak occurrence. Although he's not maintained quite the same utterly indestructible form this year, he has proven again and again that he is the best there is at the moment. Make no mistake, Rafa is the unquestionable King of Clay but all round consistency and dominance state that the Serb deserves the Number 1 ranking he claimed in reaching the Wimbledon final last year.

And yet, because he's been defending so many ranking points, there is the remarkably a three way showdown for the number 1 spot. Refer to the ATP article for more detailed permutations, but unless Novak gets to the final he's in serious danger of relinquishing the ranking he's fought so hard to gain.

Federer's consistency in the 1000 series tournaments since August, alongside victory in the World Tour Finals means that matching Nadal's performance will see him overtake his Spanish rival, and winning the title could see him return to the top of the tree for the first time since June 2010. As well as being an incredible achievement in itself, it would also ensure that he breaks Sampras' record for number of weeks as the (officially ranked) best player in the world. Sadly perhaps, the tame way he subsided to Djokovic in Paris, as well as his surprising defeat to Haas in Halle last week, means that victory at his beloved Wimbledon just seems beyond him. Let's not forget he's not won here with Nadal present since 2007 (also the last time he defeated Rafa in a Slam).

It wouldn't be a pre-Wimbledon blog by a Brit without a mention of Murray. Much like the England team in the lead up to Euro 2012, he goes in with less expectation than many years before, with disappointing performances at Roland Garros, Queens and even the exhibition matches at Boodles. It's been a lean year thus far, and he has slipped closer to number 5 than number 3, and the fear must already be developing that he will be remembered as a perennial number 4, sadly not too dissimilar to Tim "semi-final" Henman.

But, he maintains the record of always having matched or bettered his performance at Wimbledon each year and knows he can beat any of the top 3 on any given day. The question remains whether the 1st of July will be that Any Given Sunday.

Halfway there but no closer to knowing...

It's been something of a bitty and disrupted first week with rain delays, injuries and matches spanning two days but it's been as fascinating as ever and the excitement and anticipation of a thrilling climax is building. 


Roddick was the first major name to fall (I hope you took my advice and didn't have a wager on him, even at 33/1), probably marking the end of any attempts to really compete here. Another Masters 1000 or 2 is about all A-Rod can hope for I fear as his career winds down somewhat.

So the top 4 are all still with us, Murray safely into R4, for a replay of 2008's epic encounter. As seems customary with our fiery Scot at Slams, some early troubles which should lead to real confidence and form in the latter stages. At Roland Garros he had such a tussle with Troicki and coming through it gave him good momentum and belief to put away Chela and take on Nadal. Dropping sets against Gimeno-Traver and Ljubicic may have a similar effect and he'll need it as it looks like Gasquet - Monfils - Nadal could be his next 3 matches.


Nadal has looked untroubled generally, although has given up a few breaks and looked shaky at points. He didn't exactly start the French in blistering form but we all know what happened there. For some reason William Hill have dropped him to 9/4 compared to 2/1 before the tournament started but his progress has been pretty smooth so far. Playing Simon/JMDP then most likely Berdych before Murray and Federer/Djokovic certainly isn't an easy route but this is Nadal we're talking about

Federer has looked seriously good so far, smashing more than 80 winners in his two straight set victories so far. William Hill now have him as favourite, at 2/1, despite the fact that his section of the draw is the only one where all 4 seeds are still in (Almagro, Youzhny, Nalbandian). There's also the fact that Kukushkin and Mannarino are pretty awful. A renewal of the old rivalry between him and Nalbo could be interesting


Djokovic has looked devastating so far and I can't see Baghdatis causing him too much trouble. Everything's right about his game at the moment and he seems to have dealt with the end of his winning run with a maturity that is becoming increasingly characteristic of the current World Number 2. His William Hill odds have remarkably lengthened to 3/1 (11/4 before tournament) and now might be a good time to have a stab on him.* 


So, as the title suggests, we're no nearer knowing who is going to be top dog at the end of it all. That's goes for who will win Wimbledon as well as who will be World Number 1. This table shows how the rankings will look of the top 3 depending on results: 

	R3	R4	QF	SF	F	WIN
Nadal	10160	10250	10430	10790	11270	12070
Djokovic	11375	11465	11645	12005	12485	13285
Federer	8960	9050	9230	9590	10070	10870

Djokovic just needs to make the final to be No. 1, but Federer could also overtake Nadal is the Spaniard falls before the final. Interesting times ahead...


A quick review of my predictions from the last blog entry... (with my own marking)

• Nadal lost 8 games, not 4-6. 5/10
• I suggested Murray would be taken to a tie-break but he went one "better" and lost a set 4/10
• Federer hit a ridiculous 53 winners (38 in second round) 9/10
• Djokovic cruised through straight sets 0/10
• Nishikori gave Hewitt a decent run at times but the 5 setter was one round out, as Hewitt Soderling went the distance. 6/10
• 5 seeds went out in the first round, although Dolgo and Tipsy were in there. 4/10

Not the best performance then.


To make amends, here are some more...

• There will be at least 6 breaks of serve in Gasquet - Murray
• There will be at least 80 UFE in Tsonga-Gonzo
• Djokovic will beat Marcos and then Lu/Llodra in straight sets
• Fish-Berdych (assuming they both make it through) will be very close - couple of tie breaks, at least 4 sets, that sort of thing
• Nadal will lose a set to DelPo/Simon

Now it's actually started for the day, I think I'll watch some rather than just talking about it...




*In fact, if you bet equally on Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, say £100 on each, you won't lose money if any of the three win (Fed win and you'd be even, Nadal you'd be up £25, Djokovic win you'd be up £100)

Guns prepared, draw complete, ready to fire...

The Wild (South) West London showdown commences on Monday.

Murray's guns are ready for a show...

A deathly silence descends as the crowds' attention fixes on the contest to come. Saloons empty and tumbleweed hurries its way along the soon-to-be crammed streets. Competitors' guns are loaded (see pic). The preparations are complete and we've even had the draw. All that is left is for our shooters to fire. 

First, the preparations... Nadal had a truncated week at Queens where he may have started to adjust to grass but fatigue meant he didn't get a full run out. Djokovic had one exhibition match in leafy Bucks where he crushed Gilles Simon in 47 minutes. Federer has kept a low profile, recovering from a minor groin strain (a friend saw him getting some treatment in the Wimbledon physio room) and hitting the practice courts. Interestingly enough, in '07, '09 and '11 Federer withdrew from Halle due to fatigue - he won Wimbledon in '07 and '09. The only year he's failed to win Halle, since '02, was last year, when he had his worst Wimbledon performance since his first round loss to Mario Ancic, also in '02. Murray has put in the hours, with his Queens success as well as a match, albeit cut short by rain, against Troicki at the Boodles.
All the supporting players have been running through their lines as well, at Halle, Queens and The Boodles. We're ready to go


Next, the draw. Some interesting possible clashes lie ahead, before we even think of the latter stages, here are some of the picks:


3rd round: Cilic - Murray
3rd round: Wawrinka - Gasquet
3rd round: Federer - Nalbandian
2nd round: Soderling - Hewitt
1st round: Stepanek - Verdasco
1st round: Dolgopolov - Gonzalez
1st round: Baghdatis - Blake


But who does the draw favour? Difficult to say until things unfold but a bit of statistical speculation is always entertaining...
Taking the draw in 8 sections, each containing 4 seeds, we can look at the potential difficulty of reaching the quarters for our main quartet by looking at the credentials of the other 3 seeds in the section (average seeding, how many Masters series, Slams and total titles they've won)

• Nadal (1st section): 31 Raonic, 24 Del Potro, 15 Simon = 23.33 ave seeding, 0 Masters series titles, 1 Grand Slam (JMDP), 18 total titles
• Murray (3rd section): 27 Cilic, 17 Gasquet, 14 Wawrinka = 19.33 ave seeding, 0 Masters series titles, 0 Grand Slam, 14 total titles
• Federer (6th section): 16 Almagro, 18 Youzhny, 28 Nalbandian = 20.66 ave seeding, 2 Masters series titles (both Nalbo), 0 Grand Slam, 28 total titles
• Djokovic (8th section): 13 Troicki, 19 Llodra, 32 Baghdatis = 21.33 ave seeding, 0 Masters series titles, 0 Grand Slam, 10 total titles

If the success of the draw is all about reactions, so is the returning of serve. Which would suggest that Djokovic is the man. He breaks 41% of the games he receives (AM 39%, RN 39%, RF 27%), converts 48% of break points (RN 47%, AM 46%, RF 38%) and wins 59% of points on his opponent's second serve (RN also 59%, AM 57%, RF 51%). Murray leads % points won on opponent's first serve with 38% - ND and RN have 36%, RF back on 34%. 
But the best defence is unlikely to win you a shootout and so it is at Wimbledon. On the grass, just staying in the rally only gets you so far. You need to attack and put away the winners. Or so you would think.... 
Numerous people have suggested that court speed at SW19 is no faster than at 75016 (Roland Garros 'code postal') and a quick look at the stats from the top 3's matches against Berdych last year tell quite a story...


Quarter Finals: Federer - 44 winners, 18 unforced errors. 4 set loss
Semi Finals: Djokovic - 25 winners, 22 unforced errors. 3 set loss
Final: Nadal - 29 winners, 21 unforced errors. 3 set victory


Maybe it's not all about the winners after all. Whereas looking at the winners they each conceded (RN only 27, ND 34, RF 51) indicates that the defensive skills could be the ones that make a difference. 


Prediction time:
Nadal in 3, losing 4-6 games
Murray in 3, but taken to a tie-break in one set
Federer in 3, with at least 30 winners
Djokovic in 4, outrageous enough prediction to not have to give further detail
Nishikori - Hewitt will go to 5 sets
2 or 3 seeds will fall (from Baghdatis, Llodra (come on Ward!), Almagro, Dolgopolov and Tipsarevic)

Who will be the Wimble Don?

I've just found out some rather shocking news. This may come as quite a surprise to much of the British public but apparently there are other tennis tournaments during the year. I had wondered how players' rankings were determined simply by virtue of their performance at Queens and Wimbledon. Now it turns out that they play all over the world, on surfaces other than grass, in every single month of the year. 


I can only presume that from mid-July one year until mid-June the next, these players are training and preparing themselves for the real thing. It seems odd that they should travel such distances, play on clay, carpet and hard... courts (no-one seems to know what hard courts are, just that they're hard), but I suppose with 11 1/2 months to fill they feel the need to have some variety. Quite why they can't just live off the excitement and anticipation about a trip to a London postcode, I have not yet discovered. My journalistic skills are admittedly limited but then who has time to do such work when you can watch 30 second snippets about decades of Wimbledon greatness?


So, as our favourite tennis fortnight of the year approaches again, how are the main contenders looking? 


Rafael Nadal - Title favourite? I know he's only good on clay but he's not actually lost a match at Wimbledon since 2007 and even that was a 5 setter against Federer. He did look extremely weary against Tsonga in the Queens quarters but he always raises his game for the Slams and has just returned to winning ways at the French Open. William Hill have him at 2/1 and that's probably about right - no question he'll be in the hunt come the second week


Novak Djokovic - 2011 has all been about Djokovic. Not since Federer of about 5 years ago have we seen one man dominate so completely. He has remarkably already qualified for the ATP World Tour Finals (as has Rafa now), is almost certain to overtake Rafa for World No. 1 within the next month or two and has only lost once all year. But, he's never been to the final here and for someone who has been frail mentally in the past, we've yet to see the effects of the end of his unbeaten run. William Hill odds: 11/4 - could be vulnerable if he gets a tough opponent in the early rounds but if he gets used to winning again he could go all the way.


Roger Federer - At Roland Garros Federer demonstrated that he's still one of the greatest and more than capable of winning a GS. He has only lost twice at Wimbledon in the last 8 years and will be more confident taking on Nadal than on clay. Half of the times he's participated, he's won. There's no doubt he's a contender and potentially some's marginal favourite. His persistently attacking style means more UFE but also a lot more winners. Expect to see him right there at the end. William Hill odds 5/2


Andy Murray - this year? At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's his best chance yet. At least in terms of his own form: coming off the back of his best ever French Open, a devastating performance against Roddick at Queens and another year of maturing and growing. He's had another GS final to learn from and has the impressive record of always matching or improving on his previous performances at Wimbledon: '05 - 3rd round, '06 - 4th round, (didn't play in '07), '08 - Quarters, '09 and '10 - Semi's. Consistent improvement is a good sign. There will of course be a massive pressure, building to a fever pitch should he make the second week (type 'Wimbledon hype' into Google images and see who all the pics are of), which he's not dealt with well in the past but he's got the ability and with the crowd behind him, it could push him one step closer. The problem he has is that he's likely to face 2 of the top 3, and he's yet to show in a GS that he can perform at his absolute best twice in a row. At 6/1 with William Hill, he's definitely worth a stab but I won't be holding my breath...


Of course there are more than 4 gents playing and there are a few others to watch out for:


Juan Martin Del Potro - it's hard to totally rule someone out when he's won a Slam, beating Nadal and Federer on the way, but grass just isn't his glass of Pimms. He's never got beyond R2 at Wimbledon and just lost to the decidedly unimpressive Mannarino at Queens. Dangerous on any given day but very unlikely to sustain a challenge if has to play more than a couple of top tenners. William Hill odds 16/1


Andy Roddick - always has the potential to be dangerous on grass but has no form at all, put up virtually no fight against Murray and seems to be sliding sadly down the rankings. He's only made one GS quarter final since the '09 final loss to Federer and is in real danger of failing to qualify for the Tour Finals for the first time since 2002. Don't waste your money, even at 33/1


James Ward - a fantastic run at Queens and will be full of confidence, especially if he can get a win or two down in Eastbourne. If he can avoid a high seed for a couple of rounds then he could get past some top 100 players but anything more than that I don't see happening. William Hill have him at 250/1 but I'd say 1000/1 might be more accurate!


A few others to keep your eye on, last year's finalist Berdych (25/1), Queens finalist and all-round entertainer Tsonga (33/1), Gael Monfils (125/1), forgotten man Nikolay Davydenko (150/1), the battling Gilles Simon (200/1) and one of Ward's Queens victims at a remarkably generous 300/1, Stan Wawrinka. They could all cause a major seed some trouble on a given day but none really have the capacity to go all the way. 


William Hill also have Milos Raonic installed at 33/1 despite having never played a game at Wimbledon or won any ATP Tournament above 250 Series level. If he wins it or even gets close I'll fly to Canada and apologise to him personally