Just over 4 months ago, Andy Murray was heading to New York believing that it was his time. He'd genuinely competed in a slam final for the first time at Wimbledon, and had then conquered the two best players in the world to take Olympic Gold. Back on hard courts, there was a real sense that if he could avoid any early slip-ups, this could be the one.
He dispatched Bogomolov Jr and Dodig with minimal fuss before seeing off Lopez (who he's played in 3 of the last 5 GS) in the 3rd round. The potentially dangerous Raonic proved not to be so and a slow start against Cilic couldn't prevent him reaching a seemingly inevitable semi-final. The shock came in that he would be playing Berdych, who had dumped out a decidedly off-form Federer in the other quarter. The Czech provided limited opposition, crumbling away and so Murray had shot number 5 at a major title. Djokovic had fought past Wawrinka, Del Potro and Ferrer and entered as favourite. But the Scot was an entirely different man to any finals before. Even when the Serb champion battled back, Murray held his nerve to take the crown.
So, heading into a new season, what odds on him holding aloft another new bit of silverware? Well, most bookies say 9/4 or thereabouts, but the point is that he most definitely in with a shout. Obviously Novak will be favourite again, but a loss to Tomic in the Hopman Cup suggests he's far from invincible. There's no knowing where Federer is at, and of course the likes of JMDP, Tsonga, Ferrer and Berdych will be around, but the stage is set for a second successive Scottish Slam.
On a side note, Nadal's ongoing injury trouble highlights again the physical demands on top level tennis players. Robin Soderling is now "inactive" on the ATP website because he's been out of the game for so long with utterly incapacitating glandular fever and Mardy Fish's heart issues are similarly leaving him unable to compete for huge periods of times.
And now Rafa appears to be heading in the same direction. There was once a day when Nadal would have snorted in derision at a virus, but such is his level of strength and fitness these days, it caused him to withdraw with more than 2 weeks before the start of the tournament. More than just the sniffles going on there. We can only hope that the soon-to-be-world-number-5 (or lower) does still actually have a knee. There are some whispers that he may never return to the court and more than a few that he'll never again be the real ruthless Rafa.
Nadal v Ferrer
Dolgopolov v Murray
Berdych v Djokovic
Wawrinka v Federer
So, the 8 top seeds failed to all make it through. Wawrinka did indeed prove to be more than a minor spanner in the Roddick-works, but I think few expected to see Ukranian Dolgopolov put Soderling away and so comprehensively.
So who is this upstart? I must admit, I watched the first set and thought it was a bit embarrassing him being so far into the tournament. He served 23% first serves and won only 20% of points on his second serve. He pulled those stats up to 50% and 44% respectively but was no doubt assisted in victory by Soderling's astonishing UFE count. The sets Dolgo won convincingly (3rd and 5th), Robin had a combined total of 32 unforced errors. That's gonna lose you the set. Put it this way, Murray has only committed 60 UFE all tournament.
Dolgo has a bizarre and decidedly unorthodox technique, perhaps most obvious in his serve. His slingy forehands are quite dangerous and unpredictable but Murray will defend more than the naturally aggressive Soderling and it will leave Dolgo frustrated and we're likely to see an extremely error-strewn performance. In each of his matches so far, he's run away with a set or two (6-1, 6-2 against RS, 6-1, 6-1 against Tsonga, 6-0 against Becker, 6-2 against Kukushkin) which he's unlikely to be able to do against Murray.
Prediction: AD to have some dangerous moments, maybe the odd break and Murray is likely to concede more than 3 games in a set for the first time, but straight sets
As for the all Swiss match-up, Federer vs Wawrinka, although Stan seemed to be on great form and Rog struggling a touch, I can see the world number 2 coming through in 4 sets. Roddick and Monfils weren't able to offer anything different to their regular tactics and Stan punished them on the backhand time and again. No-one mixes it up and thinks on the court like Federer and that'll be enough to extend the 6-1 head-to-head
Not much of an adventurous prediction in the iberian clash either - Nadal hasn't lost to Ferrer since 2007 and takes an 11-3 head-to-head lead into the match. That said, David has won all 8 matches he's played this year (including the title at Auckland), dropping only 4 sets on the way - he's in exceptional form, but Nadal is Nadal. Straight sets
The quarter that intrigues me most is Djokovic-Berdych. Tomas is looking for a bit of consistency that might see him really challenge the top 5 - after his great Wimbledon performance, he fell off the wagon somewhat. Djoko put him away easily at the 02 and leads the head-to-head 4-1, but that 1 was the semi at Wimbledon. Don't think that Berdy will fold under the pressure. He's made serene progress, against some tough opponents and he has the potential to give Novak a good go. I'm gonna go for Nole though, I think the Aussie Open is special to him for some reason and he'll turn it up when he needs to. Another Federer Djokovic semi could be classic...
So the Australian Open starts this weekend and other than the usual Murray-mania, it's basically down to Federer Nadal. Again. If it was just Man U and Chelsea winning the Premiership every year, people would call it boring. Oh wait. Never mind.
Nadal is streaks ahead but Federer's been showing good signs - can he prove himself once again? I doubt he cares, but the number of times he's apparently finally settled the debate that he is the greatest of all time must be close to the number of aces in a Roddick-Karlovic 5 setter. Roland Garros '09 (career GS), Wimbledon '09 (most GS wins), regaining yr end No 1. ranking (end of '09), London O2 '10 (World Tour Finals).
But if you think of the great RN-RF clashes, it's Rafa that comes out on top. Wimbledon '07 was epic, but Rafa was only 21 and Roger was in his prime. When they've both been at the top of their games, Wimbledon '08 and Australia '09 it's been the Spaniard to prevail, not to mention the seemingly infinite number of RG finals he's beaten Federer in. Of course you cannot take away from Federer winning the French (09), then Wimbledon (09) and then the Aus but he didn't have to play Nadal at any of them (thanks to Soderling/injury, injury and Murray/injury respectively).
Federer's defending 2000 ranking points (from a total of 9245) whereas Nadal is only defending 360 (from a total of 12,390) so even if Fed does win, Rafa's likely to extend his lead in the rankings. Murray suffers a similar predicament in trying to win 4th back from Soderling, defending 1200 points to Soderling's 10. This won't be helped by the fact that Murray has hardly had any competitive tennis and Soderling's just won in Australia.
So any predictions? First of all, some dangerous players in the draw, undervalued in ranking for various reasons. Watch out for (in rough order of dangerousness):
Gilles Simon - Not sure Federer will be too happy to see Gilles as a potential R2 opponent, the Frenchman leads the head-to-head 2-0 and has been as high as 6 in the world, not to mention winning in Sydney this week. Prediction: he'll give Roger a good game, maybe take a set but not enough for the win - out in R2
Nikolay Davydenko - may seem silly to call the 23rd seed a threat but he's a lot better than 23 and can take anyone on his day (e.g. Nadal in Qatar last week) - could be a very interesting R4 vs Berdych. Prediction: out to Djokovic in QF
Juan Martin Del Potro - could take on Murray in 4th round, Grand Slam winner. Bit of a whack it hard as I can merchant but when he's in form, it works big time (US Open '09). Dangerous but lack of game time means he shouldn't pose Murray too much of a threat, if he gets that far. Prediction: out to Baghdatis in R2
Bernard Tomic - an 18 year old ranked at 209 currently (with a career high 208) may not strike fear in Nadal's heart but if Tomic can get past Chardy and Lopez, I think he could worry Rafa a touch. He gave Cilic a real scare last year and put out Starace (who was ranked 73) at only 16 years old. The crowd will be behind him and he may well make things uncomfortable for Rafa. If he gets to him. Prediction: (Disappointingly) Out to Lopez in R2
Who's actually going to win the thing? Ladbrokes have it dead even between Nadal and Federer, and I can't fault them - I'll go for Roger cos he's got a slightly easier route through. We'll see
So, heading into a new season, what odds on him holding aloft another new bit of silverware? Well, most bookies say 9/4 or thereabouts, but the point is that he most definitely in with a shout. Obviously Novak will be favourite again, but a loss to Tomic in the Hopman Cup suggests he's far from invincible. There's no knowing where Federer is at, and of course the likes of JMDP, Tsonga, Ferrer and Berdych will be around, but the stage is set for a second successive Scottish Slam. 
And now Rafa appears to be heading in the same direction. There was once a day when Nadal would have snorted in derision at a virus, but such is his level of strength and fitness these days, it caused him to withdraw with more than 2 weeks before the start of the tournament. More than just the sniffles going on there. We can only hope that the soon-to-be-world-number-5 (or lower) does still actually have a knee. There are some whispers that he may never return to the court and more than a few that he'll never again be the real ruthless Rafa. 
