Testing Times for England and South Africa

Interesting times in the cricketing world. A year and a half ago I wrote a piece about the end of an era as Strauss retired from international cricket and handed the reigns over to Alistair Cook. In truth, it was more of a stage 2 in the Andy Flower era, with the majority of the team remaining the same and a similar feel about the whole set up. The last couple of months however are a totally different kettle of fish. The unceremonious dumping of Kevin Pietersen, the withdrawal of Jonathan Trott, utter collapse in

form of Steven Finn and Matt Prior and sudden retirement of Graeme Swann left an England squad in tatters. Coming off the back of a successful series might have meant you could buy time and put things together again slowly. However, as it was it was unquestionably the most embarrassing and dismal tour in English history, wholesale changes were inevitable - including the departure (or at least slight shuffling) of Flower. 

A brief limited overs tour against an equally dismal West Indies won't do much in terms of rebuilding for the test arena, but it's a start at least. Getting a couple of wins (however unconvincing) is positive and certainly there are good signs from Broad and Root in particular. 

Buttler and Taylor could have big
roles for England in the coming years

The truth is that teams go through phases, and no side ever remains on top indefinitely. The Aussies dominated world cricket throughout the 2000s, but then became decidedly mediocre and are only coming out of that slump now (although they're doing it spectacularly!) England have had a real good run of it over the last 5 years or so, and it looks like a bit of spell on the sidelines. As a fan it's hard to take but accepting the reality of blooding youngsters and letting faithful servants go is necessary for having genuine success again in the future. It's only a shame that we had to be murdered down under to shock them into realising it. A big series against a young and confident India team this summer could be fascinating.

The other major storyline in world cricket at the moment is the retirement of Graeme Smith. One of the mainstays of the last 10 years is going to leave an almighty hole in the South African set up. Following so quickly on the heels of the departure of Jacques Kallis, one of the greatest players in history, is going to make it extremely difficult for them to stay on top of the test rankings. A home defeat to Australia is their first series loss for 5 years and could spell a slipping in their domination of the test arena. They still have top class players such as Amla, De Villiers, Steyn and Philander but no team can lose Smith & Kallis and not feel the ill effects of it. 

Incidentally, I don't really think that fact that Australia have gone to South Africa and won adds any level of consolation to our humiliation. Perhaps a small amount of perspective and vindication that this is a genuinely strong Aussie team, but the reality is that England played dreadfully and with no pride or fight. Hopefully those days are behind us 

Cricinfo provides a fantastic page showing the upcoming series of all the international teams. 

Six Nations, Three Big Wins

There can scarcely have been such round of a one-sided matches in the history of the Six Nations. The fierce rivalries, close contests and rich histories seemingly never fail to produce at least one tense or dramatic clash each weekend of this fascinating tournament. And yet this weekend will hardly go down in history as one of chewed nails, worn nerves and well used seat-edges. The brilliance of the competition is that it there is still so much to look at and analyse, and that the final outcome is not really any clearer than this time last week. Let's look game by game and where the results leave its respective combatants.

Paddy Jackson adds insult to injury,
while North resigns himself to defeat

Ireland 26 - 3 Wales: Probably one of the most eagerly anticipated matches of the whole tournament turned into an utterly one-sided domination by the men in green. Ireland performed exceptionally well, controlling the game from Sexton's boot and taking advantage of a hugely disappointing Welsh performance. Few would have expected Wales to play even worse than they did in their win over Italy last week, and fewer still to see such a limited response when they fell behind. Inevitably Ireland will have high hopes going into the remaining 3 fixtures but travelling away to both England and France means that they'll need to maintain their standard of play if they want to be crowned champions. It's not over for Wales, but they too will need a win at Twickenham, as well as a massive swing in points-difference to have any hope of completing that fabled treble.

Another near-flawless performance
from Mike Brown

Scotland 0 - 20 England: A worm-infested pitch and driving rain could have made for the sort of ugly battle that Scotland had a chance of emerging from victorious. As it was, the dismal pitch meant only a few missed kicks and farcical scrums - the rain never came, and nor did the competitive Scottish fight. England's only concern was not putting more points on the board when they had the chance, but unlike in Paris, there was never any danger of it coming back to haunt them. Scotland's stand-out player (at least until inexplicably subbed), Dave Denton, said before the game that this was the match which mattered most. Apparently not many of his team-mates heard him because they failed to show up with any vigour or pace. Hogg couldn't make any impression at all, while Johnny May demonstrated what England had missed last week against France. Hosting another group of Celts in a fortnight will show what England are really made of, while Scotland can look forward to the wooden-spoon-off against Italy, and I imagine putting in a bit of training on the line out.

Fofana's running made the difference

France 30 - 10 Italy: A pretty dire first half was characterised mostly by ill-discipline and missed penalties, rather than anything positive. Then the second half exploded with 3 rapid-fire French tries effectively putting an end to the competitive nature of the match but certainly providing for much more entertaining viewing. The last quarter of the match was Italy camped in the French 22, unable to find the killer breakthrough. Finally it arrived, but only after both sides had a man sent off for a headbutt and France also had one in the bin. The final scoreline reflected how much more clinical the French were, as well as how vulnerable Italy continue to be in spells. As they have done for years, they show potential and promise but not in any sustained manner.

A week off now and then possibly 2 of the biggest clashes of the tournament (sorry Italy v Scotland, I'm not talking about you). Two home wins from two for both Ireland and France, travelling to England and Wales respectively, both with one win from two. Quite feasibly we could have 4 teams with a 2-1 record after 3 matches and then it's anyone's guess how it'll finish up.

Six Nations - All Still to Play For

One round of matches into the Six Nations and in reality not much is clearer about who will be holding the trophy aloft on 15th March. Three home victories leave Wales, France and Ireland heading the table but none of the three victors established themselves as the team to beat. 

It has been much discussed that Wales were pretty unconvincing in their win over Italy. Gifted an early try by a nervous and inexperienced Italian back-line, they failed to capitalise on what was a big chance to hit some significant numbers. Given that last year's tournament came down to points difference, only taking +8 from the Italians could yet come back to haunt the two-time defending champions. Even the usually flawless Leigh Halfpenny threw a dismal pass leading to a straightforward interception and try.

All this being said, let's not forget how Wales started the tournament 12 months ago. Being 30-3 down at home after 40 minutes and going onto lose to a major rival is a whole lot worse than just having to scrape a victory against one of the weaker teams. With Lions centre Jonathan Davies (yes the one controversially selected ahead of Ireland centre Brian O'Driscoll, by Wales coach Warren Gatland) set to return a lot earlier than originally suspected, I wouldn't expect to see Welsh team that emerges in Dublin to be remotely the same, in personnel or performance, as the one which left the field in Cardiff. 

The Irish managed to see off an initially positive and organised Scotland team, who faded significantly as the game went on. Inevitably all games open up as players tire and substitutions loosen teams' structure, but into the latter stages of the second half, Ireland suddenly looked like they could score at any moment. There was a good level of cohesion and replacements for key players like O'Connell, Bowe and O'Brien stood up to be counted. A relatively easy home game is an ideal start to a campaign, allowing time for the squad to settle and find some rhythm. Both Wales and Ireland have had that chance, and as such, things are perfectly set up for their clash this coming Saturday.

As for England, I don't want to talk about it. Yes we performed well in the second half and there's lots to play for yet but frankly you can't afford simple mistakes and if we hadn't dug ourselves a hole in the first half, the door wouldn't have been open for Fickou to storm through at the death. The truth is that the better team always wins - England may have dominated parts and played good rugby, but unless you can take your chances and be clinical and focussed to the last minute, you're always liable to let the game slip. No doubt Scotland will pose an entirely different sort of threat to Lancaster's side, fierce passion and physicality likely to be the defining features. Maitland's absence will be a sorely felt by the Scots, and the returning Jonny May could make a big difference to English fluency through the backs. 

On the assumption that France will comfortably have enough to put away the Italians, the table could again make for fascinating viewing come Sunday evening.

The Rugby Event of the Year is Back Again

This weekend sees the return of the always highly anticipated Six Nations - this year's edition is no different and equally hard to predict. England, Wales and France are almost inseparable in terms of odds (approx 2-1 across most bookies), with Ireland a touch further back. Inevitably there are injury troubles (Dusatoir, Tuilagi, O'Brien, Bowe, Davies etc.) across most of the teams and with no warm up games as such, it's extremely tricky to anticipate where the different squads are at. 

The autumn internationals seem an awful long time ago now, not that the results have any great significance. Wales suffered defeats to Australia and South Africa (as did Scotland), France lost to New Zealand and South Africa, Ireland lost to New Zealand and Australia, while England lost to New Zealand but did manage to beat Australia. This underlines only the superiority of the southern hemisphere sides, rather than any great distinction between those of the north. Ultimately the Six Nations will come down to how relatively even squads perform on each of the weekends. 

If there is any team with a slight edge in terms of player quality, it must be the Welsh side that provided the backbone to the successful Lions squad. However they do come into the tournament with disruption over contracts and the like threatening to affect the squad harmony which has been such a strength for them over recent years. They are aiming for an historic third consecutive title, something never achieved in the entire history of the tournament, going back to the original Home Nations tournament in 1883. England's constant talk of building a new squad and looking ahead needs to materialise into some kind of success rather than just "encouraging results". It remains to be seen whether this can be achieved by bringing in more debutants in place of the likes of Young and Ashton.

Obviously there is a significant variety each year in the fixture list, who has home advantage in the big matches, and who plays 3 home fixtures. Looking at the 3 favourites' fixtures:

Wales home to Italy, France & Scotland; away to England & Ireland
France home to England, Italy & Ireland, away to Wales & Scotland
England home to Ireland & Wales, away to France, Scotland & Italy

Looking at it, France probably have the best fixtures, with 3 home games, 2 of which are against harder opposition. In some ways, although Wales have 3 home games, they "waste" home field advantage against Scotland and Italy who they would probably beat anyway. 

Unquestionably it will be a tighter tournament than the last couple of years, but whether Wales can make history will be a lot clearer in a month or so.

Found this interesting table via the Daily Mail, the wider the line, the more tries each team
scored that year. Bring back 2001/2 I say! (click on it to expand)

Ashes Preview, stat-attack and pun-athon

After the shortest wait in Ashes history, this week sees the return to the England-Australia cricketing battlefield. After England's successful summer, the record stands at 31 series victories each (5 drawn), only adding to the significance of already something of a meaningful set of matches. With England marginal favourites to repeat their triumph of 2010-11, all of the talk, predictions and injury-waiting will soon be at an end. Few would argue that the 3-0 victory in the summer was perhaps not as convincing as the scoreline would suggest, and it'll take a marked improvement from Cook's men to repeat the trick down under. That being said, you could say there is a lot more to come from the likes of Cook, Trott and Pietersen - leaving the Aussies quaking at the prospect of absurd run-scoring like the last time in Oz. 

It is interesting to compare the two squads in relation to the last time we were here, namely November 2010. Believe it or not, I like a stat. Especially when I have a hunch then do the research and the genuine stats reflect what I wanted to say (I don't like having to Cook them up)

Looking at the top 5 ranked batsmen from each team now and from the 18th November 2010 tells an interesting story:

England top 5 batsmen
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Trott	16	Bell	10
Pietersen	23	Cook	11
Strauss	25	Pietersen	13
Bell	26	Trott	15
Cook	29	Prior	17
Total:	119	Total:	66
Australia top 5 batsmen
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Clarke	14	Clarke	5
Katich	15	Watson	32
Ponting	18	Warner	36
Watson	24	Smith	43
Hussey	30	Rogers	46
Total:	101	Total:	162

Prior (pun intended) to last time here, the Aussies had theoretically the marginally stronger batting line up, yet there is little question as to whose batsmen dominated the series. This time, the difference in Rankin places between the top 5 is simply astonishing. Joe Root is England 6th highest ranked batsmen, and at 33, would be in Australia's top 3. 

Don't pretend you don't want to know how the bowlers line up as well. Here you go... (you won't be disappointed)

England top 5 bowlers
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Swann	2	Swann	7
Anderson	5	Anderson	10
Broad	9	Broad	11
Finn	24	Finn	20
Panesar	26	Bresnan	24
Total:	66	Total:	72
Australia top 5 bowlers
2010	Ranking	2013	Ranking
Johnson	6	Harris	6
Bollinger	7	Siddle	7
Siddle	15	Hilfenhaus	15
Hilfenhaus	16	Lyon	21
Watson	29	Johnson	23
Total:	73	Total:	72

Never again can the word 'statto' ever have negative connotations (I never understood the Root of that criticism anyway). England's bowlers were ranked slightly better last time out, but ahead of this week's clash, they are tied dead even. I appreciate that these won't be the 5 bowlers each team play (especially as England only play 4) but there's no denying the similarities. Something else that is striking, and which may be a huge factor as the winter develops, is the consistency of England's squad, both in batting and bowling - 4 of the top 5 have remained the same in each category. Consistency doesn't equal success but it could go a long way. This may ring a Bell from this summer, given that there's little doubt that inexperience cost Australia in the summer, failing to convert promising positions and being unable to dig themselves out of tricky situations. It's not to say that we'll Swann our way through the first couple of days, but there will be a lot less fear and "rabbit in headlights" than last time we were here.

Will England make history in winning 4 series in a row, for the first time since it all began, when they won 8 on the Trott? I've made a fool of myself with Broad predictions too many times to repeat the trick here so I'll just say that I would love to hear Warne embarrass himself further by saying we're too defensive yet again. It seems he'll only be satisfied if we beat them 5-0.

PS I apologise if you've Haddin-uff of the puns. Clarke my words, I'd be Lyon if I said it was easy to Ballance writing a real post with one that just Stokes the reader's fury. I was glad to Finnish though